CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

Newsmakers

ARCHIVE - DECEMBER 2013

The Best of The Best

Who is America's
best Senator?


Wisconsin's
RON JOHNSON!

And here's why!


Senate


Will Harry Reid hang
on as Senate Majority
Leader in 2014?
Photo from foxnews.com
It is looking like it
might slip away.

It's going to be close…
Keep an eye on our
election coverage!

House


Can John Boehner keep
his raucous caucus in
the driver's in 2014?
oxnews.com
Probably, but only if he
avoids unforced errors
like a bruising brawl on
immigration.

Keep an eye on our
election coverage. There
will surely be lots of
twists and turns.

2013/12/31 - One can't help but be amused by Cris Cillizza's WaPo aticle this morning, it falls under the category of ROFL. Suggesting that the Democrats will only lose 5 or 6 seats in the Senate misses the underlying trend that is developing, and ignores how most voters go through the process of making their voting decisions.

First, there are plenty of states that he has chosen to ignore. For example, in the Michigan race to succeed the retiring Carl Levin, a recent PPP poll shows Republican Terri Land leading Democrat opponent Gary Peters. With current Republican Governor Rick Snyder seemingly on his way to a second term this November, it appears that state-wide victories for Republicans in Michigan will be par for the course in 2014. "Senator Terri Land (R-MI)" - Get used to it, you'll be hearing it a lot!

Second, there are plenty of voters who have not yet gone through the process of translating their overall perceptions of their circumstances, and the country's, into a voting decision. As that process works its way through, a number of senators who presently seem "safe" will find their support eroding. The die is already cast, the process just needs to work its way through. Like waiting for the Tsunami to show up.

Look at it this way: Many voters have become disillusioned with the President, and no longer find him trustworthy It shows in the President's approval rating - better than Nixon, but lower than Bush 43 (yikes!). Suppose you're one of the disillusioned many, and you voted for Jeanne Shaheen in NH's Senate election in 2008. You may very well vote against her in 2014, but you just haven't gotten around to thinking about THAT just yet. You will, but you have 10 months, what's the rush?

And that's how most voters go about it. They don't pay attention to the 24-hour DC news cycle and don't care to. But 2014 will be a wave election in the Senate. The earthquake has already happened, now we just watch the wave roll in and wash away the Democrat Senators who voted for Obamacare. As 2014 unfolds we expect the GOP to substantially expand the playing field beyond the six or seven races Cilizza mentions. We expect November 2014 to go as swimmingly for the Republicans in the Senate as it went for Republicans in the House in 2010. See our assessment.


2013/12/19 - Ministry of Propaganda (aka MSNBC) perptuates falsehoods on the Healthcare debate. Steve Benen's bogus piece is based on the false premise (which we challenge, of course!) that the Republicans have no alternative to Obamacare. This is of course nonsense. Check out HR 3121, The American Health Care Reform Act . We don't fully agree that HR3121 goes far enough but it is a good start - and it is definitely superior to the Obamacare trainwreck.

Benen's article is a waste of space. Rather than engaging in a reasonable discussion of the substance, he basically complains that the plan contains predictably conservative ideas (we need someone to tell us that Republicans push conservative ideas?) and since conservatives are by definition evil then the plan must be... well, not a plan. Benen presents an absurdly false choice - that because he feels that HR3121 does not go far enough, the only alternative is the Obamacare disaster. Benen's is the kind of pathetic analysis that leads to a stunted debate.

Obamacare is far worse than just a bad website - the site will get fixed, but the public policy behind the website is dreadful. CTP supports the Republican plan. It needs to go further, but it puts American healthcare on a sustainable path. Obamacare is rotten to the core and will only erode the quality of care while increasing costs. Obamacare cannot be fixed - it must be repealed. Obamacare must be replaced with The American Health Care Reform Act. Check out our plan.


Random Ramblings
  • Megan McArdle has maintained an excellent commentary on Obamacare. It's especially surprising to find it on the website of Bloomberg (which has the substance of NPR but spares you the emotional roller-coaster NPR is noted for): £ ¥ Great Article


  • Are Corporate Income Taxes really such a great idea? An investment guru challenges the conventional wisdom: £ ¥ Great Article


  • Schindler Parts 1 & 2: ¥ Life Imitates Movies

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