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THE PREMISE

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ARCHIVE - FEBRUARY 2014

The Best of The Best

Who is America's
best Senator?


Wisconsin's
RON JOHNSON!

And here's why!


Senate


Will Harry Reid hang
on as Senate Majority
Leader in 2014?
Photo from foxnews.com
It is looking like it
might slip away.

It's going to be close…
Keep an eye on our
election coverage!

House


Can John Boehner keep
his raucous caucus in
the driver's in 2014?
oxnews.com
Probably, but only if he
avoids unforced errors
like a bruising brawl on
immigration.

Keep an eye on our
election coverage. There
will surely be lots of
twists and turns.
TOUGH QUESTIONS WE WISH WE DIDN'T HAVE TO ANSWER FOR...

2014/02/20 - Last week the news carried two separate stories of life surging forward in spite of terrible tragedies that would conspire to against it.

In Victoria BC, a pregnant woman complained to her husband of a severe headache. He went to the pharmacy to buy some pain relievers and by the time he returned she was on the floor unconscious. She was declared brain dead, having succumbed to severe irreversible brain damage from excessive bleeding. But her healthy, albeit premature, baby boy, Iver Benson, was brought into the world, alleviating somewhat the anguish of the grief-stricken father.

In Brooklyn NY, a pregnant woman was struck and killed by a snow plow as she was placing groceries in the back of her car. Min Lin was pronounced dead on arrival at the hospital, yet she gave birth via Caesarean section to a live baby boy, although, as of five days of age, he remains in critical condition. Our hearts go out to this family as well.

A third and final story that made the rounds last week: a man in Cambridge, MA was caught on film “playing” the knockout game, randomly throwing sucker punches at unsuspecting victims as they walked by. This reminded me of a legal observation I had read as a young lad years ago by Zechariah Chafee, Jr. who in 1919 stated in the Harvard Law Review “Your right to swing your arms ends just where the other man's nose begins.” Ever since, I have wondered just who would randomly swing their arms around anyway? Well, at least that question is finally answered, but the difficult ones remain...

The quote from Mr. Chafee, illustrated so dramatically by the story of the Cambridge man, emphasizes that our right to use our body does not exist without limitations, most obviously, to the extent that it might do harm to others. The philosophical position “it’s my body and I can do what I want with it” is simply wrong. No one has the right to use their body in a way that would do harm to others.

As I read the first two stories - stories that are not that unusual - I felt compelled to accept the conclusion that the baby’s body is a human life, separate and distinct from the mother’s. The baby might be surrounded by, inside of, and attached to, the mother; but not part of the mother. Mothers live while the unborn baby dies; and unborn babies live while the mother dies. It is sad, but it is true. And it seems inescapably true that the mother and baby have separate lives, and separate bodies. For all the difficult choices that come along with it.

in the difficult, pluralistic world in which we live, how do we balance this against the real, expressed needs of those who can speak up for themselves? I don’t know how to conclude that a mother’s right to do what she wants with or to her body extends beyond the point where the baby’s nose begins. Maybe, maybe I'm wrong; and so, uncomfortably, I'm willing to concede an allowance for abortion in special circumstances such as endangerment to the mother's life, or rape, or incest…

I’m not an abortion rights activist. Abortion just isn’t a hot button issue for me. Maybe I’m an ogre because I think more about the national debt that I do about abortion. But every time I do think about abortion, I finish more convinced than I was before that an unborn baby is an individual, distinct, real human being.


DEMOCRAT NEWSPEAK - BAD IS THE NEW GOOD

2014/02/18 - Welcome to 1984 and Minitrue. To the stunned amaze of anyone not politically deaf and blind, last week we were treated to the spectacle of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Steve Israel – pretty well the entire pantheon of the leading lights of the Democratic Party – singing the praises of Obamacare because it will reduce employment in the U.S. Yes, that is correct, not “in spite of”, but “because of”. Praising Obamacare because it will induce job loss. Yes – the once-upon-a-time party of the working man is now celebrating joblessness!

In fact the liberals have swung so far around to the left that they are now attempting to make a special guest appearance on the right. Picking up on comments from Duncan Black in USA Today, Joe Klein from Time Magazine (“Obamacare: Economic Boom?”) asserts that Republicans ought to adopt Obamacare as part of its freedom agenda (“It is, in truth, a conservative argument–a freedom argument”) because it emancipates people from... the shackles of employment (?)... without which no one would have access to healthcare (??)... because before Obamacare there was no such thing as private insurance (???).

Did it not occur to these liberals that there are already tens of millions of Americans who live outside the “joblock” world, who have small businesses, who buy insurance privately and are quite happy with it? Well, there were, anyway, until Obamacare came along and told them they can no longer keep their insurance, nor can they keep their doctor. Obamacare has changed nothing, except for destroying what Black and Klein claim it is creating, namely, access to healthcare outside of an employer/employee relationship!

These liberals decry the tragedy that people are currently “locked” into a jobs because they provide quality affordable healthcare. And apparently these liberals think that is bad. That it’s bad that people have jobs, and doubly bad that the healthcare is so good they don’t want to quit. Woe is us - jobs and healthcare? Misery! (Please, liberals, save us from the twin scourge of employment, and quality healthcare!)

And apparently these liberals think healthcare is the only reason why Americans work. Apparently shelter, food, clothing and all sorts of other spurious luxuries that Americans have become unnecessarily obsessed with have nothing to do with it. Or the desire to save money? Certainly not! If the liberals ruin our healthcare then we can quit our jobs because we don’t need these other beads and mirrors.

If all this doesn’t sound sufficiently twisted and tortured, don’t worry, they’re not finished being wrong.

Black and Klein claim that with more time on their hands, this newly unemployed class – 2.5 million Americans, according to the CBO – is going to unleash a profound creative energy. Like the next Wright Brothers, or the next Fedex. Except that Fedex and the Flyer did not come about because their creators were sitting around smoking pot. The Wright Brothers had a bicycle business that gave them the platform for building airplanes. Fred Smith developed his ideas for Fedex from logistics lessons learned while serving as an officer in the Marine Corps. They came up with their ideas and were able to realize them as a direct result of being constructively engaged.

If being idle and having lots of spare time is the source of creative genius, then why hasn’t the Medicaid class, or the food stamp class, or the disability class, already unleashed a profound creative energy many times over? Simple: because we pay them to do nothing, so nothing is what they do.

I didn’t come up with Fedex and the Wright brothers, they are Klein’s examples! And they prove the exact opposite of what he thinks: thank goodness that Fred Smith, and Orville and Wilbur Wright, didn’t wait until they were fired by Obamacare before putting their ideas to the test!


JOHN BOEHNER'S BIG GAMBLE

2014/02/13 - Others are calling for Speaker Boehner’s head on a platter over the unconditional debt ceiling increase, but I’m not there quite yet. I know it seems like a total sell-out, but let’s play the devil’s advocate. Let’s just say John Boehner really is a conservative, and he really wants to advance a conservative agenda. Farfetched, I know, but let’s just see where this train of thought takes us.

In the past Boehner has said that he is constrained in what he can do, given that Republicans in the House only control one half of one third of the levers of government. Suppose he really does look forward to the day when he has an ally on the Senate side, and Congress really can send better legislation to the President.

Boehner has spent more time mired in a tractor pull with Harry Reid than he would have liked or should have expected. Yes, conservatives are itching for a fight, and therein lies the problem. Too often the Establishment has retreated when they should have fought; and now the Tea Party does not trust the Establishment to make a strategically valid tactical retreat, because all they ever do is retreat. It's never "two steps forward, one step back", its always "one step back, one step back, one step back". Conservatives are fed up with the constant state of retreat directed by the Establishment.

It doesn’t matter what the issue is, the Socialist Creep has been with us since Woodrow Wilson, certainly since FDR. Deficits. Abortion. Healthcare. Hand outs. Gun rights. Taxes. It always seems like the right is playing defense, and worse, never seems to be making a stand. Consider immigration. The agreement with the Democrats in the ‘80’s turned out to be a touchdown for the left – they got everything they wanted and surrendered nothing.

But it didn’t stop there. When the Republican Establishment took over the immigration football in the ‘00’s, they fumbled it away and gave possession back to the Democrats with good field position, and now the Democrats are moving the ball down the field again. And the Republican Establishment defensive line? They leave gaping holes when the left tries to run the ball, and apply no pressure when the left tries to throw the ball. No wonder the Tea Party in the secondary wants to blitz on every play!

So against such a backdrop what is our hypothetical conservative John Boehner to do? Here is what I hope the Speaker’s plan is:

  • Tell the Establishment to grow a spine, make a stand, stuff the immigration bill in its tracks, stall the left’s drive, and force them to punt it to the GOP-controlled 114th Congress;
  • Tell the Tea Party not to blitz on the Debt Ceiling for a change, and avoid getting burned for another big play. Aim for a superior fiscal deal in the GOP-controlled 114th Congress; and
  • Avoid divisive issues, and issues easily manipulated by the media. Focus on Obamacare because that will be THE winning issue on November 4.
  • If this is the strategy, then Boehner is asking conservatives to make yet another concession on fiscal issues, after we’ve already retreated 17 trillion times. As painful as it is, this might actually be a good time not to charge the hill; this might actually be a good time for a tactical retreat.

    If we really have a strategy this time, and this is it, then it’s not a bad strategy as GOP strategies (oxymoron alert!) go. If it fails, Boehner will be finished. If it succeeds, the hypothetical conservative John Boehner better show up for real, button up his chin strap, line up head to head against the left and get ready to play some smash-mouth football. Otherwise there really will be a Republican civil war.

    If Republicans do recapture the Senate, and Boehner and McConnell actually show themselves to be real conservatives who step up for the American taxpaying middle-class, it could be the start of something good.

    That's a lot of "if"'s...


    YOU CAN'T JUDGE A BOOD BY ITS COVER

    2014/02/11 - Can you judge a book by its cover? This weekend I read a confusing and ill-premised piece by Binyamin Appelbaum in the New York Times Sunday Review. The title “Will Saving on Health Care Hurt the Economy?” was an exercise in false advertising as the question was left unanswered. Sometimes I wonder how NY Times readers turned into what they have become - at least his article helped me understand that much.

    The short answer to the question, as posed, is “No”, though it depends upon the nature of the savings. The fact is that if healthcare savings are being driven by increased efficiency, then such efficiency gains always lead to economic improvement. Even if “Healthcare” as an economic component on a superficial statistical level appears to be holding back economic growth, increased efficiency always has net positive benefits that reverberate throughout the economy.

    And if higher co-pays are reducing the number of spurious doctor visits, or tort reform is encouraging physicians to reduce the amount of unnecessary testing, healthcare spending would go down but we would be more properous. There can be no doubt that if we spend less money on healthcare because we are healthier, it leads to economic gain – if a nation’s workers are productive for more of their adult lives with fewer days lost to illness or injury, then the nation’s output and prosperity will certainly be enhanced, even if less of its total output goes to healthcare. Who actually prefers to spend money on healthcare, rather than recreation, anyway? Would you rather take an afternoon off to go to the doctor, or take that afternoon to play golf / ride your bike / go to the beach?

    On the other hand, there are healthcare “savings” that can be extremely detrimental to the economy and the nation’s wellbeing. If we spend less on healthcare because joblessness removes people from employment-based plans that satisfactorily reimburse healthcare providers, and places those unemployed people on government programs with low reimbursement rates, that is to our long term detriment.

    Worse, if the swelling ranks of the jobless impose strains on Medicaid and Medicare, and governments react by cutting reimbursements even further, this puts the entire system at risk of a downward spiral. Medicare and Medicaid rates are dropping below the threshold where becoming a physician is a viable profession. Also at risk are future research and development of new medicines and devices. The Obamacare device tax doesn't help either.

    The author Appelbaum parrots the Administration’s claim that “the Affordable Care Act ‘is contributing to the recent slow growth in health care prices and spending’”, but fails to question whether they are damaging the system longer-term. A business can cut costs in the short term by spending less on maintenance, but that harms their long term competitive position; similarly, Obama & Sebelius can do a victory lap for their momentous contributions to American healthcare, but repeatedly cutting payments to doctors is a losing strategy if you want to attract the best and brightest to the medical profession.

    So getting back to Appelbaum's question, if he leaves unanswered the question of “why” healthcare spending is decelerating, then it is not possible to determine if the economic impact if beneficial or detrimental. For example, suppose a person loses weight. If the loss is due to a better diet, or increased exercise, that is probably a good thing. However, if the weight loss is due to declining muscle mass, dehydration, or the amputation of a limb, it is probably a bad thing. Similarly, without answering why costs are going down, Appelbaum has no reason for writing this article.

    Let’s look at some of his individual points that don’t make sense:

  • “The United States spends much more on health care than do other countries” – here the author flogs a dead horse. I’ve commented before on why this is and will be for at least another generation - we are by far the world’s largest economy and the center of research and development, so we pay full cost and tiny countries pay marginal cost. Oh, and by the way it doesn't help that we are an obese unhealthy nation either, but don't take my word for it, ask the First Lady.
  • “idled resources are not being put to better use” – and Obamacare is going to allocate resources from where the capabilities exist, to where the needs lie, better than providers and consumers will in a free market?
  • “Rising prices spur people to borrow and spend more quickly” – Wrong. Banks aren’t stupid. If they think inflation will trend upward, then nominal interest rates will go up in anticipation, thus causing people to borrow less, not more!
  • “Expensive innovations like new drugs are arriving at a slower pace.” – this is what happens when governments cut payments to providers, there is less money to be invested in innovating new medicines and devices. And the Obamacare device tax only exacerbates the problem.
  • Appelbaum never gets into the "why" of healthcare cost deceleration other than one sentence from a White House advisor. The article ends up a random collection of incorrect sentences.


    REPUBLICAN PARTY SAVED FROM ITSELF

    2014/02/05 - The mid-term elections of 2010 were very good to the Republican Party as they made big gains in the Senate and recaptured the House. Indeed, they “shellacked” the Democrats, as one noteworthy commentator put it, in his understated way. And it was the enactment of Obamacare that catalyzed the base, energized the turnout, and ran up the score.

    During the four years since, Democrats have attempted to mollify the electorate by claiming that the Republicans are just scare mongers. That once we found out what was in the bill, we’d actually like it. But now the rollout of Obamacare has demonstrated that the law is fact even worse than its detractors had predicted. And again the public is antagonized, and President Obama’s approval ratings have plummeted. And the GOP is on the ascendancy.

    So you would think that Republican leadership would gladly accept this winning hand they have been dealt, this gift that keeps on giving, this goose that lays golden eggs. You would expect them to keep talking about Obamacare. An Obamacare stew with a tablespoon of Benghazi here, a pinch of IRS there, and stir the pot with some NSA as well. But the main ingredient? Obamacare. Simmer until October then bring to a full boil. Obamacare stew – mmm, delicious!

    Then last week the House leadership decided to try and spoil the whole thing by throwing Immigration into the electoral success recipe. The November elections were spooling up very nicely for Republicans, yet by last Friday the triumvirate of Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy (BCM) were coming very close to destroying the virtuous scenario that had been unfolding before their eyes...

    Americans don’t very much care about immigration, so there’s nothing to gain there. And the Republican base despises some of the aspects of the reforms that are being bandied about, so there’s everything to lose there. What would cause the leadership to begin an assault on the very forces that had brought them to their positions of leadership? A discombobulation seemed inevitable.

    Then, this week suddenly, arriving in a cavalry-like fashion, to the joy of millions, in charged the Congressional Budget Office! To the rescue! Yes, the CBO, those wonderful bureaucrats with their briefcases, containing a critique of Obamacare showing that, among other shocking outcomes, over 2 million jobs will be lost. This is of course an utter disaster, a policy failure of titanic proportions. Now suddenly the conversation is back to where it should be – Obamacare. And yes, the Republican Party is saved. At least for the time being it is saved from itself. Saved from inflicting fatal wounds upon itself.

    And thus the main issue of discussion returns to Obamacare. And if it stays there, where it belongs, the Republicans will gain in the House, retake control of the Senate, thwart the leftist statist agenda, and in 2016 recapture the White House. Obamacare will be repealed and we will all live happily ever after. Thanks to the CBO. Thank you, CBO, for saving us from Boehner, Cantor and McCarthy.


    TRIUMVIRATE ACHIEVES RETROGRADE TRIFECTA

    2014/02/03 - Though we take no joy in doing so, we have to admit that we were correct, House Republicans did indeed make a mess of their messaging by wading into immigration. Boehner, Cantor & McCarthy, LLP have managed to infuriate Democrats by scuttling the Senate bill, antagonize conservatives by offering a path to legality, and distract voters from a winning issue by taking the focus off of Obamacare.

    I mostly agree with the principles, but why even talk about it at all? Well, let’s get it done and over with on a Friday so next week we can go back to Obamacare.

    The document should have clearly distinguished between transitional realities and permanent foundational concepts, by positioning them under two separate headings and empathizing their nature.

    Border security is a permanent, continuous concept, not a one-and-done. President Obama cannot be trusted to enforce laws, as required by the Constitution and his oath of office. Worse, he has eroded trust not just in himself, but in the office of the President, and in the accountability of government. There is a law that the Senate has to pass a budget, but in Harry Reid’s four years when no budget was passed, what were the consequences? What were the consequences of healthcare.gov? What has happened even to the concept of accountability?

    The effectiveness of our border security needs to be regularly evaluated by third parties, for example the GAO and a private contractor (Ernst & Young, Accenture) on a rotating basis. Second, there needs to be real performance standards to measure non-compliance, for example, any time more than say one million illegal aliens are estimated to be living in the country, then that should require a finding of inadequate performance. Finally, there must be serious consequences for inadequate performance, for example, the terminations of both the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security. There must be “zero-tolerance” on Day 1, and on Day Every Day.

    On the other hand, the pathway to legality must be specifically designated as temporary, as a momentary one-and-done capitulation to an adverse reality that we are committed to not repeating. There should be a brief window for applying to get on the pathway, and after that the window is closed, locked and shuttered.

    It’s a hard, difficult concession for conservatives to grant rewards to people who break laws. When someone tries to rob a bank, we don’t offer them fifty grand with impunity, just so long as they put their gun away so no one gets hurt. And it makes no sense to grant citizenship, or even some lower level of legal status, to people who break our immigration laws. Parents live vicariously through their children, thus, granting citizenship or even permanent residence to the children of illegals still represents a reward to the law-breaking parents. As the Principles lay out, such a concession is “harmful to promoting the rule of law”. Maybe resident alien status for parents, permanent residence (green card) for children, and citizenship for grandchildren? I am not even sure if that is tolerable to the Right.

    A temporary path to legal status is hard for conservatives to accept, and having already been burned on previous immigration "reform" the trust simply does not exist. It's gone. None. Conservatives simply do not believe that Democrats are bargaining in good faith. And they no longer believe in the integrity of the office of the President – not just this President, any President, any more. It just doesn’t seem likely that Democrats will yield enough on security and enforcement for the conservatives to hold their noses and go along with a path to legal status. Maybe in 2015 during the 114th Congress when Republicans will be in position to enact legislation with real security and enforcement mechanisms.

    Now, can we drop this and go back to talking about Obamacare?



    Random Ramblings


    Feb 28, 2014 - The Georgia state house has passed a bill requiring slower drivers to move to the right lane or face substantial fines. Former Georgia Public Safety Commissioner Bill Hitchens deserves credit for crafting such a fine bill.

    Hey, if people want to take it easy that's cool. Just do it in the "take it easy lane", and don't claim some special right to encumber folks who actually have business to tend to. Clearing the left lanes reduces congestion, reduces fuel consumption, reduces pollution, reduce aggravation and "rage" incidents, it's safer, and makes the drive more tolerable. Better yet, if you have time to burn, then save some money, take public transportation, and stop clogging the roads.

    Road rage doesn't happen in a vaccuum, and as often as not, the infuriated driver is actually the victim of another driver's sloppy, inconsiderate and inadquate driving technique.

    Congratulations, Georgia, this is a good law with sharp teeth - now let's get this through the Senate and on to the Governor!



    Feb 26, 2014 - Remember back in 2006, 2007 and 2008, every day the media would overwhelm us with the worst news from Iraq? Even on a day when we had zero casualties, the media would make us squirm with the week-to-date, month-to-date, and year-to-date bad news? Long after we got the idea and fatigued from hearing it, they would give us even more, precisely because our fatigue made it seem even worse.

    So fast forward to the last three years of Obama's presidency, and the Obamacare bad news is just like Iraq. The latest: Obama promised annual healthcare savings of $2,500 per family, but on Friday the CMS - the Administration! - released a study showing 11 million Americans will see their healthcare premiums go up, not down. Media response? Crickets, of course. They must think we're fatigued of the ObaMcCare disaster. Nothing new to see here folks, move along...



    Feb 24, 2014 - One-time famous person Ted Nugent was recently quoted calling President Obama some rather nasty things - if you don't know what he said, don't look it up either, you don't want to know. For the record, we at chalprem.com absolutely repudiate his remarks, and any name-calling in general.

    While we disagree with just about every one of the President's policy pronouncements, it is decidedly not personal - it is about a vision for the future of our country. There is no time or space to waste on personal attacks, we have more important things to worry about. When someone is wrong, call out those wrong ideas - but personal attacks have no place.

    We are convinced that left-wing policy prescriptions, such as those uttered by the President, and Democrats generally, are a dead end for our country; and that conservative public policy solutions will renew and invigorate our nation. We aim to passionately - but politely - debunk liberal ideas, and advance conservative solutions.



    Feb 21, 2014 - Preposterous. That’s as good a word as any to describe the federal Minimum Wage debate. Irrespective of anything else, one thing that should be painfully obvious to any impartial observer is that there is no one single number that would be close to being the right number for all parts of the country.

    Whatever the right number is for New York City – if there is one – it is virtually certain that it won't be the right number for Jackson, Mississippi. In fact, it is far from obvious that the right number for New York City would even be the right number for a town in upstate New York, let alone the South - as if even the South or any other region was a fungible homogenous whole. How can the right number for San Francisco, CA be the right number for Needles, CA, let alone some small town on the Plains?

    Doesn’t common sense just scream out that the Federal Government should stay out of this entirely, and leave it to the individual states to figure it out for themselves? The Constitution already implores the President to leave it alone (as if that would matter to our constitutional-lecturer-in-chief).



    Feb 17, 2014 - Chattanooga chooses to not go the way of Detroit. Workers at a Volkswagen plant in Tennessee voted against organizing under the banner of the UAW, thus saving themselves from the fate of so many Big-3 auto workers, and saving their city from the fate of Detroit. Surprisingly, some workers actually did vote for the UAW/Big-3/Detroit option.

    The vote failed even though VW encouraged a pro-UAW vote, and shamefully attempted to silence "third parties" opposed to the UAW - as if the taxpayers, homeowners and businesspeople are somehow not connected to the destiny of their city. Try convincing the taxpayers, homeowners and businesspeople of Detroit that they had no stake in the destructive conduct of the UAW.



    Feb 14, 2014 - An Obama-installed federal court judge has struck down Virginia’s 2006 “doma” law, opining that it violates equal protection under the 14th Amendment. These 14A arguments smack of overreach to me, since the various marriage restriction laws apply equally to all people: Marriage is not allowed if either party is already married, if either party is too young, the parties are of the same gender, the parties are closely related, etc. We have rules, and they apply equally to everyone. If 14A isn’t being overstretched, can’t someone also argue that a ban on polygamy is discrimination based on marital status? Is that what’s next? It probably happen soon enough.



    Feb 10, 2014 - Ron Fournier from National Journal says John Boehner should stop casting stones at Obama. And who is the #1 "stonecaster" in America? Uhh... maybe Obama should stop casting stones at just about everyone - Republicans, Supreme Court Justices, conservatives, people who like God and/or guns, tax-payers, job-creators, and just about everyone else in this country who attempts something constructive.


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