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THE PREMISE

Newsmakers

ARCHIVE - MAY 2015

Issues, News & Views

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


SCOTT WALKER!

Walker has broad appeal to
GOP constituencies and is a
proven winner. Look for him
to select New Mexico
Governor Susanna Marinez
as his running mate.



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
The road to the White House
leads past the Governor's
mansion. Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul and Ted Cruz need to
go back to their state capitals
and fill out their resumes.
Among governors, Jeb Bush
and Rick Perry are stale, and
worse, remind people of
GWB 43. John Kasich is
unappealing to the base.
Mike Pence is an intriguing
alternative to Walker; the
other Mike (Huckabee) is
NOT!

Democrats


ANDREW CUOMO!????

Look for Hillary to drop out
and open the way for Bill
Clinton's HUD Secretary.
Cuomo, also Cinton's
neighbor in Westchester
County, finished his 2014
re-election with $8.8 million
in the bank, and would have
no problem raising much,
much more. Look for him to
pick MA Senator Elizabeth
Warren - or even Hillary
Clinton! - as his running
mate.



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
A Clinton run is a 50/50
proposition at best, given
her failures as First Lady
(HIllaryCare) and SecState
(Reset). In the meantime the
prospect keeps her speaking
fees in the stratosphere, and
keeps a path open for the
Clinton's hand-picked
designee: Cuomo. Warren is
an instant contender if she
jumps in. Everyone else is an
also-ran at this point. Webb
is an interesting Presidential
candidate, but a non-starter
in the Primaries: this is the
extreme left Democratic
Party of Sanders and
Warren.

REDRAWING IRAQ

2015/05/22 - Was it a mistake to invade Iraq? Much has been made over the past two weeks of the stumbles of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. On May 11 Megyn Kelly of Fox News asked Bush if his brother had made a mistake to order the Iraq invasion, and that set the news cycle in motion.

The problem with Iraq is that the country is a bogus, artificial construct that is ungovernable except by an intolerably brutal dictator. Iraq is by definition a mistake, a bad mistake by the French and English who did a miserable job of divvying up the scraps of the fallen Ottoman Empire. It is a seething cauldron of factions scraping against each other on every imaginable fault line – religion, ethnicity, class, education, you name it. It never should have been, and the sooner it is not, the better.

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in the summer of 1990 changed the course of history, at least as we currently know it. The fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979 and the circumstances of that revolution created the ongoing condition of enmity between Iran and most of the rest of the planet. Iran and Iraq fought a bloody war in the mid-1980's that automatically put us on the side of the Iraqis. The war ended in a stalemate.

But Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 left us with no real choice but to side with the Kuwaitis and defeat Iraq in the 100-hour war. We had the choice then of leaving a hopefully chastened Saddam Hussein in power, or finishing the job and dividing that ethereal entity into fully independent semi-homogenous countries – an independent Shia Arab state in the south, an independent Sunni Kurdish state in the north, and incorporating the Sunni Arab western provinces (such as Anbar) into Jordan and/or Saudi Arabia.

Leaving the unchastened Saddam Hussein in power seemed like President George H. W. Bush's least worst alternative – or the easiest to implement – and that is the course he selected. But it failed to recognize the reality we mentioned earlier – Iraq is an artificial construct that is ungovernable except by an intolerably brutal dictator. Bush 41 declined to cure the disease, he contented himself with momentarily relieving the symptom.

But then it got personal. On April 13, 1993 Saddam Hussein attempted to exact revenge by using Iraq's intelligence service to assassinate Bush Sr. The plot failed and the agents were captured, but that made the grudge personal. Now, wouldn't you have a chip on your shoulder against someone who tried to kill your dad? So, unfortunately for us all, Iraq became personal for the Bush scions, and it is still personal. Once 9/11 happened it was only a matter of time before a Bush would strike back.

Irrespective of whatever else happens in the world, an Iran led by an Ayatollah is a pariah state, an enemy of the United State; but an Iraq led by Saddam Hussein is a personal adversary, a family enemy of the Bushes. Once engaged militarily in the Mideast it was not possible for George W. Bush to see Iran as the real enemy; and it is still not possible for Jeb Bush to provide a simple answer to an obvious question, even though he has had ten years to think through an incisive response and practice it in the mirror.

We don't need a Bush's take on Iraq and the Mideast. We don't need George H. W. Bush or any of his descendants to lead us through the intricacies that are Iraq. We don't need Iraq period. Or Syria. If the borders were redrawn to more accurately reflect the people who live there, ISIS would be defeated by resilient, fervent opposition presented by unified peoples with a vested interest in protecting their homeland, as the Kurds have demonstrated so passionately. So we propose the following revised borders of the Mideast:
• South/East Iraq: Residual Shia Arab Iraqi state
• North Iraq and North/East Syria: newly-created Sunni Kurdish state
• South Central Iraq: ceded to Kuwait
• Southwestern Iraq: ceded to Saudi Arabia
• Southern Syria and Western Iraq: ceded to Jordan
• Western Syria between Turkey and Lebanon: Residual Alawite Syrian state
• Golan Heights: ceded to Israel
• Southwestern Syria: ceded to Jordan for the creation of a semi-autonomous Druze province
• West/Central Syria: ceded to Turkey for the creation of a semi-autonomous Christian province

The Iraqi experiment in Multiculturalism has been an unmitigated disaster. It should never have happened, the time to undo it is long overdue. The borders must be redrawn with the intent of reducing the diversity – and conflict – within these nation-states.

If only the sons of George H. W. Bush wouldn’t think to run for President there would be no such question as whether it was a mistake to invade Iraq.



Analysis


May 05, 2015 - To our delight, yesterday Republican New York State Senate Majority Leader Republican Dean Skellos (R-Nassau County) was indicted on corruption charges.

Wait, you say - delight? Republican?

Yes, and did we say he's Republican?

Yes, absolutely. We are opposed to corruption, and we support honest representative government of, by, and for the people - not for a privileged few. And we are not at all partisan about it.

And that is one reason why we are appalled that Democrats support Hillary - her aroma is not merely repugnant, it is toxic. C'mon, liberals, holding your nose will not help, breathing her fumes through your mouth will still kill you.




May 03, 2015 - Inequality is a choice, so yes, we do agree with Nicholas Kristof on that. But who makes that choice? Below are some reflections on his absolutely absurd op-ed that appeared in today's New York Times.

If you choose to drop out of school, you will become less equal...

If you choose to engage in substance abuse, you will find yourself becoming even less equal...

Folks who choose to commit crimes might suddenly find themselves a whole lot less equal...

Folks who won't hold down a decent job will definitely become less equal...

Childbirth out of wedlock makes all those involved quite a bit less equal, not just those who chose to forego contraceptives...

If you choose not to stand up and resist the disequaling forces around you, it should come as no surprise that you will become less equal, and so will those around you...

And finally, if you choose to develop a bad attitude about the inequality that has come upon you through the suboptimal choices made by you and your community, you will become even less equal.

Yes, inequality is by choice.


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