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THE PREMISE

Newsmakers

ARCHIVE - AUGUST 2016

Issues, News & Views

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


DONALD TRUMP??

Donald Trump has come out
of nowhere and stolen the
show. He seems to have
captured the zeitgeist, the
spirit of the times. Can it last?



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
With the inept Obama
Administration in its final
days, one would have
expected that experienced
governors with a record
of accomplishment would
dominate the Race 2 Replace
but outsiders and novices
Trump, Carson and Fiorina
are in the hunt! Seasoned
executives for sure, but
not the ones the beltway
had in mind!


Democrats


BERNIE SANDERS??

The creaky, rusty Clinton
machine grinds slowly
onward, wayward, relying
solely on muscle memory
for movement. Will
Democrats suddenly rise
from their slumber to the
realization she cannot win a
General Election?



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
Folks on the right can barely
contain their joy at the
prospect of a Clinton
candidacy. Shouldn't that
give pause to the Democrats?
Biden and Warren are both
better candidates and better
Democrats than Clinton, but
aren't even in the race. And
then there are O'Malley and
Sanders, again, both better
Democrats and better
candidates. Yet the Dems
seem intent on following
Clinton in a lemming-like
charge over the cliff.

REVIEW OF THE TRUMP ECONOMIC PLAN

2016/08/25 - There are really smart people around - not necessarily wise, but certainly smart - who make mention of relentlessly seeking a unified principle of everything. However, their pursuit is in vain because there already is a unified principle of everything.

Between the U.S. Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution, The Wealth of Nations, and of course the Bible, you have a unified principle of everything. The foundation of religion, economics, politics and government - basic human society - firmly laid out.

Policymakers must heed these documents, or ignore them to the peril of their communities. Too often, however they do not. Sometimes out of malice, sometimes out of ignorance, most often here in America because well-intended emotional impulses get the better of them. Because they decision-making is ruled by their feelings and not their brains. Not very wise, and probably not very smart, either.

Although the writers of these documents were less technologically advanced than we are today, that does not mean they did not possess more wisdom. Today it is easy for us to confuse knowledge with wisdom, or intelligence with wisdom. We are certainly more knowledgeable than those who have gone before; whether we are more intelligent is debatable; but we do not seem to be wiser.

Unfortunately today we have many smart people - the intelligentsia - who reject these documents, for to ratify them would be to discredit their own raison d'ętre. Being smart, they come up with new ideas. But who needs smart people with new ideas, when the old ideas were good, right and true? But these smart people must come up with new ideas, so they come up with bad ones, because most of the good ideas have already been taken. In the process, professing themselves also to be wise, they become fools.

But the intelligentsia, hawking these new ideas don’t know they are fools, and ignorant and emotional leftist policymakers need them to justify their nonsense policy proposals. So we have a progressivist class of foolish liberal academics and ignorant Democrat politicians pushing detrimental policy proposals at us.

On August 9 Donald Trump unveiled his economic plan in a speech in Detroit. While we might disagree on a few basic points as well quibble over details, the plan was generally true to basic principles of free markets, the price mechanism, economic incentive, and freedom to succeed and to fail. And needless to say, very smart (but quite foolish) people such as Mark Zandi as well as the Clinton goons were soon on the attack.

But let’s consider some of the ideas in Trump's plan:

  • Trump plan: Fewer, lower tax brackets.
    • Chalprem: Agree, though we would have gone further - tax brackets that are even fewer and even lower.
      • We advocate for a flatter, lower, simpler tax system in keeping with the fact that taxation is a penalty on success, and thus a disincentive on attempts to succeed.
  • Trump plan: Streamline deductions.
    • Chalprem: Agree, though details are sparse
      • We would limit deductions to a fixed personal deduction, charitable donations, and tax free savings accounts for basics: healthcare, education, homeownership and retirement.
  • Trump plan: Deduct all childcare expenses
    • Chalprem: Disagree. Fixed personal deduction is better.
      • Too complicated to file, too expensive to administer, and too costly in terms of lost revenue. Unnecessary, because rates are being reduced.
  • Trump plan: Reduce business tax to 15%
    • Chalprem: Agree, though we would have gone further.
      • We advocate for the elimination of business tax altogether - it would unleash an exciting period of economic growth and job creation, and eliminate a government bureaucracy.
  • Trump plan: End the estate tax
    • Chalprem: Disagree, in fact, it should be increased
      • We believe in an “Earnership Society”, not in free stuff. It is up to each American to make his or her own success. This isn’t Downton Abbey. We do not believe in dynastic wealth, that was an imperial idea the Revolution sought to rid us of. The tax code already contains overly generous exemptions.
  • Trump plan: Regulatory Reform
    • Chalprem: Agree
      • Unqualified wholesale support.
  • Trump plan: Trade Reform
    • Chalprem: Mixed, both strong agreement and strong disagreement
      • Trade as a principle is crucially important, but to do it well is just as important. Whether you are trading your services to an employer in exchange for a wage, or your favorite sports team is trading players with another team, or a broker is trading stocks, the potential to make bad trades should be blatantly obvious. International trade is no different. Trade is good, bad trade deals are awful. We fear Trump will throw out the baby with the bathwater.
  • Trump plan: Energy Reform
    • Chalprem: Agree
      • Wholeheartedly agree. Couldn’t have said it better ourselves.
  • Trump plan: Obamacare Repeal and Replace
    • Chalprem: Agree
      • Replace with what? Check our URL healthcare plan
  • Trump plan: Increase infrastructure spending
    • Chalprem: Agree
      • The key is to raise the highway fee imposed on fuel sales; and ensure that this is not a union giveaway or a corrupt corporate crony caper.

Overall it is apparent that the Trump plan makes sense. It will create jobs, strengthen our economy and improve our government fiscal position by

  • holding government revenues steady
    o by increasing the tax base…
    o while reducing tax rates.

  • and reducing government expenses by
    o eliminating regulatory costs; and
    o putting Americans back to work, liberating them from government dependency.

Nevertheless, the "really-smart-but-not-so-wise" class - you know, the guys who gave us the last housing crisis - are back and on the attack…




Analysis


August 15, 2016 - Health insurer Aetna has announced it is pulling out of Obamacare in 11 of the 15 states it presently serves.

Aetna's announcement follows on decisions by other larger insurers including United Healthcare and Humana who have also scaled back or eliminated participation in the Obamacare fiasco.

The program has been a failure as insurers have reported losses in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars on Obamacare plans due to the unexpectedly poor health of the participants.

Wealthy people who tend to be healthier do not qualify for Obamacare subsidies and therefore by their insurance directly from the insurers, rather than buy government-concocted plans offered on the exchanges.

The Obama people insist that the plan is a success because fewer people are uninsured than ever before, but this is false - people who do not buy insurance face heavy fines. In other words, they are coerced. Or extorted.

Obamacare: just another example of poor public policy and corrupt Big Government oppression, brought to you by President Obama and the statist Democrat know-it-all elites.




August 02, 2016 - This bulletin just in straight from the “I need this like a hole in my head” department: the Democrat National Committee’s CEO (Amy Dacey), CFO (Brad Marshall), and Communications Director (Luis Miranda) have all resigned.

This comes barely a week after the resignation of Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and continues the fallout from the email hacking scandal.

When your organization is attempting to accomplish anything - least of all winning a US Presidential Election - the last thing you need is a mass resignation from your C-Suite.

It remains to be seen how the turmoil will impact the Clinton campaign. The impact will be negative, but only time will tell whether it is only a slightly bad thing, or a very bad bad thing. But it is a bad thing.

Democrats, notwithstanding, seem to be holding up fine, at least outwardly, secure in the knowledge that their candidate is the very best, most qualified candidate ever. Ever.


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