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Newsmakers

ARCHIVE - NOVEMBER 2016

Issues, News & Views

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


DONALD TRUMP??

Donald Trump has come out
of nowhere and stolen the
show. He seems to have
captured the zeitgeist, the
spirit of the times. Can it last?



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
With the inept Obama
Administration in its final
days, one would have
expected that experienced
governors with a record
of accomplishment would
dominate the Race 2 Replace
but outsiders and novices
Trump, Carson and Fiorina
are in the hunt! Seasoned
executives for sure, but
not the ones the beltway
had in mind!


Democrats


BERNIE SANDERS??

The creaky, rusty Clinton
machine grinds slowly
onward, wayward, relying
solely on muscle memory
for movement. Will
Democrats suddenly rise
from their slumber to the
realization she cannot win a
General Election?



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
Folks on the right can barely
contain their joy at the
prospect of a Clinton
candidacy. Shouldn't that
give pause to the Democrats?
Biden and Warren are both
better candidates and better
Democrats than Clinton, but
aren't even in the race. And
then there are O'Malley and
Sanders, again, both better
Democrats and better
candidates. Yet the Dems
seem intent on following
Clinton in a lemming-like
charge over the cliff.

VICTORY!

2016/11/09 - In a word, "WOW!" Donald Trump has shocked the world - turning it upside down in the wake of last night’s electrifying victory. Overseas financial markets tumbled overnight on the news, only to be stabilized, turned around, and supercharged by our domestic markets this morning. Political markets, however, are in turmoil as folks on the left are spiraling out of control, going off the rails like a crazy train. “How could this happen”, they hyperventilate, “how in a million years?”

The answer is “Quite easily”, by a score of 310 to 228, a margin of 82 electoral votes. As usual, the late-breaking and undecided voters went against the incumbent party, and that hints at the first of many reasons why Trump won.

The pattern in American politics is that the president/party switches every eight years, and this rarely changes except in the face of overwhelming domestic and foreign policy circumstances. For FDR it was The Depression and WW2, then eight years of Truman (D), eight years of Eisenhower (R), eight years of Kennedy/Johnson (D), and eight years of Nixon/Ford (R).

The voters denied Carter a second term due to the miserable economy and Iran hostage fiasco; Reagan/Bush (R) were rewarded with three terms for a booming economy and collapse of the Soviet Union. Then back to pattern – eight years each for Clinton (D), Bush (R) and Obama (D). With a mediocre economy and faltering foreign affairs, swing voters were not inclined to give the D-Team a third term.

Barack H. Obama was a phenomenon, perhaps even a personality cult. If you were to judge by the likes of Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, Maxine Waters, Elijah Cummings, Keith Ellison and the rest of Congressional Black Congress with nonexistent cross-appeal, you would be certain that the first black President would have to be a Republican. But then, not from the CBC, but from out of nowhere, comes Obama. Uh oh… A foreboding fell upon me as I watched his speech at the 2004 DNC convention, the realization that the conservative Republican first black President I had been hoping for… was going to be a liberal Democrat.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, Obama made it look easy, and so the Democrats have come to think that it is. Spoiler alert: It isn’t. That’s the first Democrat delusion of the 2016 election. In fact, the Democrats haven’t had a good federal election this century without Obama running for federal office:
2000NO ObamaLOST President
2002NO ObamaLOST Senate
2004NO ObamaLOST President
2006Obama – Senatewon Congress
2008Obama – Presidentwon President
2010NO ObamaLOST House
2012Obama – Presidentwon President
2014NO ObamaLOST Senate
2016NO ObamaLOST President
You know you’re a Democrat if you can’t see the pattern. The Obama phenomenon turned out minority voters in record numbers; but without Obama, turnout reverts to the historical norm.

The phenomenal minority turnout enjoyed by Obama created the second delusion, the delusion of the “coalition of the ascendant”. That there had been a sea-change in the attitudes of Democrat constituencies on the lower end of the socio-economic scale, that overnight they had turned into hard-core highly-engaged self-motivated political activists who would vote in ever higher numbers for whatever candidate the Democrat establishment dangled in front of them. Apparently not.

The third Democrat delusion of the 2016 candidate is that Hillary Clinton is a good candidate, indeed a great candidate. Actually, she’s awful. Older Democrats have been imagining a President Hillary since the ‘90’s, and became prisoners of the idea. Obama’s win in 2008 solidified the idea, like rigor mortis – “ok, fine, Obama – then Hillary, dammit!” But a crucial part of the Democrat base – young people, people who came of age in the age of Obama – really badly wanted someone else. And weren’t interested in what Clinton was peddling. Plop “Obama new car smell” into a search engine and you’ll see that even Obama saw Clinton as a step backward.

Another Democrat delusion is that taking shots at people of faith will keep increasing their electoral successes. It used to be that, to some extent, the Republicans were the Protestant Party and the Democrats were the Catholic Party. But Obama’s DOJ and other Democrat bullies have been picking fights with religious people of all sorts – bakers, photographers, pizzerias, B&B’s, Hobby Lobby, and even nuns known as Little Sisters of the Poor. People of faith, devout people of all stripes, are fleeing the “tolerant” Democrats and finding a welcome in the Republican Party.

Another Democrat delusion is the homogenous Hispanic voter – that all Hispanics are the same, and that all can be pandered to with free stuff. Again, not so. There are many devout Hispanics, who are deeply offended by the Democrats’ war on faith. Similarly, there are many successful hard-working Hispanics who don’t want free stuff, who instead want to be freed of the burden of Big Government. And there are many Hispanics who believe illegal immigration is in fact illegal and should be treated as such. The results from Florida indicate that the Democrats may have lost ground with Hispanics.

Another interesting aspect of this election was the prescient study of the 2012 election results done by political statistician Sean Trende (“The Missing White Voters” – 2013). You’ll recall that in the aftermath of 2012, the Republican Establishment was convinced that the way back to the White House was through free stuff for Hispanics – amnesty, Romneyphones, whatever it takes. However, my take away from Trende’s study was that Romney had done poorly where Ross Perot had done well in 1992, and to win in 2016, Republicans would need a more populist candidate with appeal to the Perot block, the white working class. And that was the candidate the Republican primaries produced.

But how could Republicans possibly pry the working class away from Democrats? Well, it turns out the Democrats have abandoned the working class, have just handed them over to the Republicans. Don’t need them, not part of the “coalition of the ascendant”. Just a bunch of “irredeemable deplorables”. The Dems got a do-over with Obama’s “bitter clinger” comment, and they did it again. You can’t keep insulting people over and over and still expect them to stay on board. Oh, and remember, Clinton said she wanted to put all the coal miners out of work. No surprise that blue-collar whites abandoned the Democrat ship that sunk in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Democrats are delusional to think women will vote for a female candidate simply because of her gender. Actually it is rather insulting. Sure, the feminist identity-oriented activists that hang out at Democrat conferences might think so, but many other women are offended by the idea. We may never know whether Clinton lost more votes than she gained based on the appeal to gender, but if it helped, it certainly didn’t help enough.

Almost everyone - including me - liked the idea of a First Black President even if - like me - you opposed the policies of this particular one. Anyhow, that’s over now. Been there, done that. The next “First Something President” will have to earn it on his or her own merits, not based upon appeals to whatever their particular “Something” is.

One wonders where the Democrats will go from here, especially with the prospect of big losses looming in the 2018 Senate elections. Should they back off on the extremism? Or double down on their identity politics? Aim for some cross appeal, or try to run up the popular vote scores by even wider margins in a few big cities, while ignoring the nation as a whole? Stick with Obama’s no-show “coalition of the ascendant”? Lurch even further to the left and hand the reins to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren? Now, there’s your 2020 dream ticket!

* Update: In the second paragraph reference is made to Electoral Vote. Ultimately Clinton carried New Hampshire so the final election night outcome was 306-232, a margin of 74 electoral votes in favor of Trump.

** Further update: Due to faithless electors, the final electoral vote count stands at 304-227, a margin of 77 electoral votes for Trump.




Analysis


November 30, 2016 - Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) wins re-election as leader of House Democrats - and Republicans are ecstatic.

The very old Pelosi, the epitome of entrenched liberal coastal elites, has overseen huge losses by her party over the last four elections, but Democrats seem not to have tired of losing yet.

Pelosi will forever be remembered in infamy for her signature Obamacare line "you have to pass this bill to find out what's inside".

Nancy Pelosi - the gift that truly does keep on giving.




November 06, 2016 - Whiplash! FBI Director Jim Comey announces that nothing of interest has turned up from the trove of emails they lifted from the computer of Anthony Weiner / Huma Abedin.

A classic case of Gilda Ratner's character Emily Litella, the old woman of Saturday Night Live "Never Mind!" fame.

So that's it. Nothing to see here, folks, move along.

Silence. A nothingburger. Nothing but a big fat "just kidding". Nothing but crickets.

Really? So much ado about nothing? That's the end of it? What just didn't happen? So now everyone on both sides of the aisle are dazed and confused, and no one is at all happy.

Republicans feel completely cheated, like the rug has been pulled out from beneath them, because there is clearly so much more going on there. They believe quite rightfully that Hillary Clinton is guilty of racketeering at Clinton Global, and of compromising national security as Secretary of State. Generally, complete abuse of public office.

And Democrats have been apoplectic for the past week that Comey didn't just flat out knight her, saint her, and coronate her last Friday. She is after all the best and most deserving candidate in United States presidential election history.

So Comey tried to walk the tightrope but instead slipped off with one leg falling on either side of the rope. That's gotta hurt.


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