February 2015 Edition
Who will be the
LATEST ELECTION NEWS
|no contenders yet||Declared||no contenders yet|
|Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley||Strong Signals||Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Lindsey Graham|
|Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Bernie Sanders, Brian Schweitzer||Positioning||Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker|
|Joe Manchin, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo||Mixed Signals||Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Rand Paul|
|Mark Warner, Tim Kaine||Weak Signals|
|Julian Castro, Deval Patrick||Hard No||Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan|
2016 Election Archives
1. SCOTT WALKER - Scott Walker had a very good month. He announced his PAC, brought down the house at a confab in Iowa, and now leads the pack in some polls.
2. JEB BUSH - Jeb's closest establishment competitor, Mitt Romney, has dropped out. But a new establishment competitor, Lindsey Graham, has jumped in.
3. CHRIS CHRISTIE - Chris Christie had a meeting with Mitt Romney after Romney dropped out. Christie is probably the biggest beneficiary of Romney's move.
4. RICK PERRY - Perry has been making more noise about his intent to try again. Keep an eye out for Perry 2.0.
5. MARCO RUBIO - Rubio has told his camp to push forward as if he will indeed pursue the nomination. He's gotten a lot of mileage out of Obama's Cuba announcement.
6. LINDSEY GRAHAM - A newcomer to our top-12. In the wake of Romney's drop-out, the Senator has announced the formation of a committee. He is in the pro-amnesty / defense hawk establishment camp. His huge war chest and knack for airplay should make him a player, but most helpful is that his home state of South Carolina is the largest of the four early states. That guarantees Graham will be hanging around with the front runners when things get serious.
7. MIKE HUCKABEE - Huckabee has been out making comments intended to stir up social conservatives, but they do nothing other than give social conservatives a bad name. Mike, please fire your strategist.
8. JOHN KASICH - Playing the long game, taking it slow and easy, keeping options open.
9. RAND PAUL - Paul will not succeed. He wants to play neither defense (for example, NSA eavesdropping) nor offense (attacking radical Islamists) on national security. His seeming wallflowerism terrifies people.
10. TED CRUZ - Cruz has been building a team and making fiery speeches, but hasn't said much about an official campaign.
11. BEN CARSON - Carson is not an establishment favorite, and party insiders are dredging up what little they can to tear him down before he gains momentum.
12. MITT ROMNEY - Romney briefly dabbled with a candidacy during January but kyboshed it by month end. He dipped his toe in the water but got a cold reception. It's time for Romney to take his place opposite Bill Clinton as the party's elder statesman. We believe the following two comments from Romney indicate he would tend to be more supportive of Scott Walker and less supportive of Jeb Bush:
"I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well-known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee,"
“I feel that it is critical that America elect a conservative leader to become our next president. You know that I have wanted to be that president. But I do not want to make it more difficult for someone else to emerge who may have a better chance of becoming that president.”
XX. PAUL RYAN - Ryan has officially dropped out. The next governor of Wisconsin.
1. ANDREW CUOMO - Will the arrest and resignation of New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver start a chain reaction? Will Andrew Cuomo be implicated if the corruption investigations widen? How much scrutiny can Andrew Cuomo withstand?
2. HILLARY CLINTON - Clinton's outlook dimmed somewhat this month when word got out that she was the strongest proponent of overthrowing Gadhafi. Apparently she learned nothing from Iraq. Now Libya is a failed state inching toward ISIS control. Now Clinton has pushed out her announcement date to July.
3. ELIZABETH WARREN -Warren continues to not discourage her supporters from encouraging her.
4. JIM WEBB - Jim Webb's been saying Dems need to do better with the white working, which runs counter to everything that Democrats think about their destiny.
5. MARTIN O’MALLEY - O'Malley confessed to being knocked off balance by Democrat losses in 2014, especially the defeat of his gubernatorial defeat of his protégé Anthony Brown. Still, we expect him to recover and press forward.
6. JOE BIDEN - He really does plan to run for president. Really. He made news recently by blaming ISIS gains in Syria on a lack of US "boots on the ground". He may be right, but it's surprising he would say that. Actually, it's probably not so surprising.
7. BERNIE SANDERS - Only Sanders can make Obama look like a conservative. In one of the very few policy instances where we agree with our President, Sanders sent a scathing letter to Obama excoriating the Administration over the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal that is about to move to the front burner.
8. BRIAN SCHWEITZER - A headline-challenged month for Schweitzer. With Hillary lying low, he should be taking advantage of the opportunity to fill the void.
9. JOE MANCHIN - Joe Manchin kept his name in the news by being at the forefront of a group of Democrats who oppose the president and support the popular bipartisan Keystone legislation.
10. MARK WARNER - The Virginia state GOP has filed an ethics complaint against Warner, alleging he discussed employment possibilities with the daughter of a state senator in exchange for political favors from her father.
11. TIM KAINE - The further left of the two Virginia senators, Kaine has opposed the Keystone initiative and has expressed a desire to lift the budget sequester and allow federal spending to run wild again.
12. BARBARA BOXER -Boxer has announced her retirement from the senate. She did not take advantage of the opportunity to announce a presidential bid.