Who will be the
for President of
the United States?
Walker has broad appeal to
GOP constituencies and is a
proven winner. Look for him
to select New Mexico
Governor Susanna Marinez
as his running mate.
Who, from among this
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
The road to the White House
leads past the Governor's
mansion. Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul and Ted Cruz need to
go back to their state capitals
and fill out their resumes.
Among governors, Jeb Bush
and Rick Perry are stale, and
worse, remind people of
GWB 43. John Kasich is
unappealing to the base.
Mike Pence is an intriguing
alternative to Walker; the
other Mike (Huckabee) is
Look for Hillary to drop out
and open the way for Bill
Clinton's HUD Secretary.
Cuomo, also Cinton's
neighbor in Westchester
County, finished his 2014
re-election with $8.8 million
in the bank, and would have
no problem raising much,
much more. Look for him to
pick MA Senator Elizabeth
Warren - or even Hillary
Clinton! - as his running
Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
else swoop in and
steal the show?
A Clinton run is a 50/50
proposition at best, given
her failures as First Lady
(HIllaryCare) and SecState
(Reset). In the meantime the
prospect keeps her speaking
fees in the stratosphere, and
keeps a path open for the
designee: Cuomo. Warren is
an instant contender if she
jumps in. Everyone else is an
also-ran at this point. Webb
is an interesting Presidential
candidate, but a non-starter
in the Primaries: this is the
extreme left Democratic
Party of Sanders and
LATEST ELECTION NEWS
Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign
May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.
Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.
The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.
Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.
Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.
MARCH 2015 ELECTION NEWS
Senate Minority Leader Announces Retirement
March 27, 2015 - "Dirty Harry" Reid (D-NV) has announced he will not seek re-election in 2016.
The long-past-expiration 76-year-old Capitol Hill fossil insisted it had nothing to do with his fear of getting crushed in next year's election.
Republicans already hold ten of the twelve major offices in Nevada, and Reid's departure will make it even harder for Democrats to hold his Senate seat.
Dan Coats Announces Retirement
March 24, 2015 - Senator Dan Coats (R-IN) has announced he will not seek re-election in 2016.
The 71-year-old mentioned it is time "to pass this demanding job to the next generation of leaders". Hopefully more conservative leaders, his meh 59% rating from Heritage in the 113th Congress is nothing to be enamored with.
Ted Cruz makes bid for Presidency Official
March 23, 2015 - Ted Cruz formally announced his run for President at a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, VA.
Cruz is the first major candidate - either a current or former Senator or Governor from either party - to take the plunge.
Walker Aide self-dismisses for Insulting Voters
March 17, 2015 - The Scott Walker campaign has fired its social media consultant Liz Mair for sending out tweets taking shots at Iowa and calling Americans "morons".
To normal people, the firing (or whatever it was) was the only logical outcome - how can a campaign's social media "expert", of all people, do something so foolish?
Nonetheless, her friends in the media have tried to turn the separation, rather than the tweet, into some kind of scandal for which Walker is somehow to blame.
DC insiders have gotten in a twist over this; to ordinary voters, who cares?
Disastrous Press Conference for Clinton
March 10, 2015 - If you want our next President to be a likeable, honest, transparent public servant who demonstrates genuine concern for the interests of the American people, you would not have enjoyed Hillary Clinton's performance.
She came across as cold, pedagogic, a disciplinarian. She collects all emails public and private, she decides what she'll release, and the public can go to hell. What she doesn't want us to know, is none of our business.
As she said, “the server will remain private”. Yes, that server illegally holding public information.
Hillary Clinton has disqualified herself. Democrats don't want to accept that, and they may not get to that place on time to save 2016.
Senator Mikulski announces retirement
March 02, 2015 - Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) has announced her retirement. Ever heard of this illustrious 78-year-old 5-term Senator? Ever? Neither has anyone else. She will not be missed - her performance in the 114th Congress (2013-2014) was rated as 0 by Heritage.
Don't be surprised if Martin O'Malley cancels his struggling Presidential bid to take a shot at this seat. He says he's not interested, but that's to be expected. He can always jump in if his Prez bid flops, but there is no way to make it work the other way.
2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT MARCH 1, 2015
no contenders yet
no contenders yet
Julian Castro, Deval Patrick
Rob Portman, John Thune,
SCOTT WALKER - Great month for Scott Walker - he now leads the pack in most polls, with balanced support throughout the factions, demos and crosstabs. Still, we leave Walker's chances at 30% - that's about as well as it is possible to do in a crowded, strong field.
JEB BUSH - The anti-Scott Walker. Underneath his "happy warrior" veneer he has conducted a draconian campaign that is making enemies, a very Clintonesque carrot-or-stick campaign, of servility or retribution.
MIKE HUCKABEE - Cut out of the same mold as Walker and Perry, in our view he should be third in that line. But people seem to like him more than Perry, he has a floor.
CHRIS CHRISTIE - Chris Christie has not found his niche yet.
MARCO RUBIO - Rubio is a great candidate, but Jeb Bush is stealing all the Florida oxygen. He will have his day, but in the meantime he better keep his eye on his Senate seat - the wolves are at the door. Better keep the home fries burning.
RAND PAUL - Paul has his niche, but nothing else. There is a ceiling he cannot rise above.
LINDSEY GRAHAM - Graham has money and an early-state constituency in his favor. Against him is an out-of-fashion hawkish foreign policy perspective, and support for immigration amnesty. His tent is in the establishment camp like Jeb Bush, but he's more like Jeb's brother George.
JOHN KASICH - On a recent Fox Business interview he treated the reasonable and mild-mannered Neil Cavuto like an enemy. It was a strangely belligerent performance. Think of him as Christie-Lite.
RICK PERRY - If Scott Walker stumbles while trying to run a state and run for President at the same time, look for Rick Perry to find some traction.
BEN CARSON - Neurosurgeon Carson is a DC outsider. In fact, he seems to be a genuinely wonderful, brilliant, and accomplished person, but he has no political experience, no relevant job experience whatsoever. Good choice for Surgeon-General, or Health and Human Services Secretary.
TED CRUZ - Scott Walker tied Ted Cruz for the lead in a recent poll in Texas. He won't be around at the end.
MITT ROMNEY - We'll keep his seat warm in case he changes his mind. Again. It's pretty obvious he really does want to run:
ANDREW CUOMO - We continue to believe that Hillary Clinton is a problem candidate, and is merely a placeholder for someone else, a Clintonian like... Andrew Cuomo? We can’t believe that someone as corrupt as Clinton is actually going to run, and that Democrats will actually allow that to happen.
HILLARY CLINTON - Another bad month for Clinton (when was the last good month?). New revelations surrounding conflicts of interest at their financial laundromat, Clinton Global Initiative. Even Dems have been outspoken in their criticism. She’s begging for a challenge.
ELIZABETH WARREN - How can this self-styled person-of-the-people remain on the sidelines and allow Clinton to waltz to the nomination? Maybe because Fauxcahontas / Liawatha isn’t who she claims to be?
BERNIE SANDERS - We’re moving Sanders up because the extreme left is going to want an alternative to Hillary. If not Warren, Sanders becomes the placeholder for that slot. They are not going to allow Hillary to waltz in by acclamation. Just like we will see Cuomo or Clinton, but not both, ditto Warren and Sanders.
JIM WEBB - Webb’s problem is that he comes from a similar policy perspective as Clinton – he’s a cleaned-up male version of Hillary. Not the kind of alternative that the far-left is looking for.
MARTIN O’MALLEY - If Democrats wake up and decide not to hand the nomination to Hillary, O'Malley might wake up as well, and he will be among the front runners.
JOE BIDEN - Joe Biden has a chance if there is a spectacular Hillary collapse. But seriously, can anyone countenance a “President” Joe Biden? Of course not, and that applies to pretty well everyone in this weak Democrat field.
BRIAN SCHWEITZER - Schweitzer seems to be fading into the rearview mirror. Yet he is still #6 on our list. Did we mention that the Democrats are a talent wasteland?
JOE MANCHIN - Manchin does not like Washington. Look for him to quit the Senate and return to the Governor’s mansion. It just has a ring to it. Still, he would be an intriguing candidate if a path were to open up.
MARK WARNER - Warner would be a decent candidate if Democrats suddenly gave their collective head a shake and realized how awful Hillary is.
TIM KAINE - He’s on the list because we can’t identify twelve Democrats who might make good candidates. That’s how weak the Democrat bench is.
BARBARA BOXER - Another “Is that all you got?” example of the weak Democrat bench.
The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.
Long Term Outlook:
DEMOCRATS NET +2
A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.
Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL
1. Harry Reid, D-NV
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)
Long Term Outlook:
DEMOCRATS NET +10
A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.
We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.
Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.
Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07
to review our 2014 election coverage.