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THE PREMISE

ELECTIONS 2016

PRESIDENT

April 2015 Edition

CONGRESS

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


SCOTT WALKER!

Walker has broad appeal to
GOP constituencies and is a
proven winner. Look for him
to select New Mexico
Governor Susanna Marinez
as his running mate.



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
The road to the White House
leads past the Governor's
mansion. Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul and Ted Cruz need to
go back to their state capitals
and fill out their resumes.
Among governors, Jeb Bush
and Rick Perry are stale, and
worse, remind people of
GWB 43. John Kasich is
unappealing to the base.
Mike Pence is an intriguing
alternative to Walker; the
other Mike (Huckabee) is
NOT!

Democrats


ANDREW CUOMO!????

Look for Hillary to drop out
and open the way for Bill
Clinton's HUD Secretary.
Cuomo, also Cinton's
neighbor in Westchester
County, finished his 2014
re-election with $8.8 million
in the bank, and would have
no problem raising much,
much more. Look for him to
pick MA Senator Elizabeth
Warren - or even Hillary
Clinton! - as his running
mate.



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
A Clinton run is a 50/50
proposition at best, given
her failures as First Lady
(HIllaryCare) and SecState
(Reset). In the meantime the
prospect keeps her speaking
fees in the stratosphere, and
keeps a path open for the
Clinton's hand-picked
designee: Cuomo. Warren is
an instant contender if she
jumps in. Everyone else is an
also-ran at this point. Webb
is an interesting Presidential
candidate, but a non-starter
in the Primaries: this is the
extreme left Democratic
Party of Sanders and
Warren.

LATEST ELECTION NEWS


Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign

May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.

Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.

The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.

Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.

Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.


APRIL 2015 ELECTION NEWS



Democrat Party Welcomes Socialists

April 30, 2015 - Democrats cheered the announcement of self-proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President.

Sanders is not a Democrat, but current Democrat Party rules do not require their presidential nominee to actually be a party member.

It makes a mockery of the Democrats' views of inclusivity that they will even allow a person who opposes them to seek to take over their organization. Or maybe the facade is finally down, it is fully revealed that the Democrat Party is indeed a stalking horse for Socialism.

And then there were three: Marco Rubio

April 13, 2015 - Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has announced he will seek the Presidency in 2016, the third freshman Republican Senator to join the fray.

The 43-year-old Rubio is an exciting candidate, but it just isn't his time yet. First things first, Republicans need to hold his Florida need to hold his Florida Senate seat. Rubio would be the clear favorite against the Democrat challenger, his Republican replacement significantly less so.

We believe Rubio should seek re-election as Florida's Class III Senator, then run for Governor in 2018 when Rick Scott terms out. Serve a couple of terms as Governor, then run for the White House.

Marco Rubio would be a good President, but he would be a great President ten years from now.

Hillary Clinton announces run for Presidency

April 12, 2015 - Well, she did it. Hillary Clinton has announced her campaign for the White House. Ho hum... website, YouTube video, and a Facebook page - excited yet?

How different it was back in 2004. Barack Obama seemed like a man of destiny from the moment he lit up the DNC convention. But Hillary's campaign has no such buzz, no magic. It's flat, no one cares. She is a product of the beltway, a "Made-In-DC" candidate the rest of the country will not get excited about.

Democrats will rue this day - this time they will get bit by their identity politics. Just because Hillary Clinton is a woman does not make her a compelling candidate. By this time next year, Democrat insiders will realize she just isn't very good, that they no longer have any feasible alternatives, and that they are headed straight for electoral disaster.

Chicago Mayor Survives Run-off

April 08, 2015 - Rahm Emanuel was re-elected by a 56-44 score to continue his stint as Chicago's mayor.

Have fun, Rahm, as your liberal polices push the city further downward.

Senator Paul Announces Candidacy for President

April 07, 2015 - Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has announced he will seek the Presidency in 2016.

Promising to be a "new kind of Republican", we have concerns about his soft-on-crime, soft-on-terror, soft-on-foreign-policy positions.

It remains to be seen whether Republicans will embrace him but he has the space mostly to himself. Plus, he isn't Jeb Bush, so he has that going for him as well.

Senator McCain Announces He Will Seek Re-election

April 07, 2015 - Senator John McCain (R-KY) has disappointed us all and announced he will seek re-election in 2016. The unworthy successor to Barry Goldwater will be seeking his sixth - SIXTH! - term as Arizona's Class 3 Senator.

McCain, a contemporary of Methuselah, will be past his 80th birthday by Election Day. He is already long past his expiration date.

Can you say, "Primary"?



2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES




PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT APRIL 1, 2015
Democrat Status Republican
no contenders yet Declared Ted Cruz
Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley Strong Signals Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker
Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Bernie Sanders, Brian Schweitzer Positioning Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry
Joe Manchin, Elizabeth Warren Mixed Signals John Kasich, Rand Paul
Barbara Boxer, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner Weak Signals Bobby Jindal
Julian Castro, Deval Patrick Irrevocable No Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan


2016 Election Archives

March 2015

Februay 2015

Januay 2015


THE REPUBLICANS

1. SCOTT WALKER - We continue to rank Walker as the leader but we’re knocking his rating down to 25%. He had a few bumps on immigration and campaign organization. A large field of competitors is developing, many of whom will seek to siphon off support from Walker if he stumbles.

2. JEB BUSH - Bush is having trouble gaining transaction outside of the Establishment. From his father’s “no new taxes” to his brother’s $5T addition to the federal debt, the base gets the sense they are being lied to yet again about his “conservative credentials”. He’s still ranking #2, but we’ve cut down his rating.

3. MARCO RUBIO - We are moving Rubio up to #3. He appears nearly certain to announce his candidacy in April, and that’s a sad story. He’s a great candidate, but the GOP has plenty of those. The party dearly needs him to hold the Florida Senate seat.

4. MIKE HUCKABEE - Huckabee has his following. These are the people Walker needs to steal away in order to prevent Bush from splitting the defense and skating through the primaries.

5. BEN CARSON - Carson continues to poll strongly so we’ve bumped him up. He seems nearly certain to go forward with a declared candidacy. Again, these are people Walker needs.

6. RAND PAUL - We are not big fans of the Paul’s. It would be nice to see them actually govern something rather than just run for President all the time. We like a lot of what the Paul’s have to say, but it would just be nice to see how that would translate into governance. But the Paul’s just don’t seem to want to show us that.

7. CHRIS CHRISTIE - What’s in a name? It seems that Christie’s embrace of Obama in 2012 has had the same effect as Charlie Crist’s embrace of Obama in 2009. We’ve knocked Christie from #4 down to #7. Is Christie “The Unforgiven”?

8. LINDSEY GRAHAM - Graham has the neocon/defense hawk niche to himself. That means he has access to money. He has not polled as well in his “First Five” home state of South Carolina as we would have expected.

9. JOHN KASICH - The first thing that strikes you about Kasich is that he’s rude – an arcane niche where he plays second fiddle to Christie.

10. RICK PERRY - The best Perry can hope for is to hang around waiting to see if Scott Walker implodes like Perry himself did in 2012. Then he may get a second chance.

11. TED CRUZ - We love Ted Cruz – to replace Mitch O’Connell as Senate Majority Leader. C’mon, really? Abolish the IRS? Governors just don’t say stuff like that. How many budgets has Cruz balanced?

12. BOBBY JINDAL - ...for Senate. Louisiana Governor Jindal is termed out, and Louisiana Senator David Vitter is leaving Capitol Hill to take Jindal’s place. Vitter’s Senate seat would be a good place for Jindal to stay in the mix for future opportunities.


THE DEMOCRATS

1. ANDREW CUOMO - Circumstances continue to point to an Andrew Cuomo candidacy. Watch for Hillary to drop out, for Cuomo to announce, and the Clintons to endorse. New York’s money and delegates is a great place to start a campaign.

2. HILLARY CLINTON - Yet another bad month for Clinton (when was the last good month?). Scandal after scandal. At this point her potential candidacy seems as though it can have no other practical purpose than to act as a stocking horse for some other candidate. And collect donations for Clinton Global Initiative.

3. ELIZABETH WARREN - If Elizabeth Warren wants in, she’ll be an instant front-runner. How can this self-styled person-of-the-people remain on the sidelines and allow Clinton to waltz to the nomination? Clinton is everything Warren claims not to be.

4. MARTIN O’MALLEY - We’ve moved O’Malley up. As Clinton’s scandals pile on and she hides in the bunker, early-state activists, enthusiasts and operatives are getting antsy. O’Malley has been making the rounds and making progress in Iowa and New Hampshire, and may be nearing a breakthrough.

5. JIM WEBB - Webb’s a decent man, and might even make a decent President. But his campaign doesn’t seem to have a decent chance. Still, things can change. And they will when Hillary drops out.

6. BERNIE SANDERS - Sanders is downplaying the likelihood of an entry into the fracas. But everything changes when Hillary drops out.

7. JOE BIDEN - Joe Biden would probably like to run for President. Already you can sense the growing groundswell… no you can’t.

8. BRIAN SCHWEITZER - The former Montana governor is going... going... That he hasn't dropped in the rankings tells you what you need to know about this motley field.

9. JOE MANCHIN - Manchin in the Mansion. It has a nice ring to it. If Hillary doesn't drop out, look for Manchin to retire and run again for Governor of West Virginia.

10. MARK WARNER - Warner would be an interesting candidate if Clinton wasn't so... interesting!

11. TIM KAINE - Who else? Amy Klobuchar?

12. BARBARA BOXER - Or Jerry Brown. Or Daniel Malloy. Or Steve Beshear. Or…George Clowney?



The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.


SENATE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +2

A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.

Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Harry Reid, D-NV

Even:
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI

Close:
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC

Marginal:
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH

Fluke:
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)



HOUSE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +10

A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.

We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.

Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.

Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02

Even:
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01

Close:
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07


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