CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

ELECTIONS 2016

PRESIDENT

July 2015 Edition

CONGRESS

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


SCOTT WALKER!

Walker has broad appeal to
GOP constituencies and is a
proven winner. Look for him
to select New Mexico
Governor Susanna Marinez
as his running mate.



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
The road to the White House
leads past the Governor's
mansion. Marco Rubio, Rand
Paul and Ted Cruz need to
go back to their state capitals
and fill out their resumes.
Among governors, Jeb Bush
and Rick Perry are stale, and
worse, remind people of
GWB 43. John Kasich is
unappealing to the base.
Mike Pence is an intriguing
alternative to Walker; the
other Mike (Huckabee) is
NOT!

Democrats


ANDREW CUOMO!????

Look for Hillary to drop out
and open the way for Bill
Clinton's HUD Secretary.
Cuomo, also Cinton's
neighbor in Westchester
County, finished his 2014
re-election with $8.8 million
in the bank, and would have
no problem raising much,
much more. Look for him to
pick MA Senator Elizabeth
Warren - or even Hillary
Clinton! - as his running
mate.



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
A Clinton run is a 50/50
proposition at best, given
her failures as First Lady
(HIllaryCare) and SecState
(Reset). In the meantime the
prospect keeps her speaking
fees in the stratosphere, and
keeps a path open for the
Clinton's hand-picked
designee: Cuomo. Warren is
an instant contender if she
jumps in. Everyone else is an
also-ran at this point. Webb
is an interesting Presidential
candidate, but a non-starter
in the Primaries: this is the
extreme left Democratic
Party of Sanders and
Warren.

LATEST ELECTION NEWS


Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign

May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.

Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.

The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.

Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.

Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.


JULY 2015 ELECTION NEWS



Jim Gilmore arrives late to the GOP Presidential Party

July 29, 2015 - Apparently there is a sense of blood in the water, as GOP contestants keep lining up for a shot at the Democrat carcass in 2016.

Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore has joined the party as well. He was elected governor in 1997 and served one term in that capacity. He has also been Attorney General for the state, as well as a stint as RNC Chairman.

Gilmore has about zero chance of winning among such a large field of better-known high caliber candidates, so it is not clear what his actual plans might be.

John Kasich rounds out GOP Presidential field

July 21, 2015 - Ohio Governor John Kasich became the final likely Republican candidate to announce a bid for the Presidency.

Not surprisingly, no major prospective candidate was able or willing to turn his back on an opportunity to be Leader of The Free World.

Kasich's announcement has not made much of a ripple, as people have been covering their ears trying to avoid Donald Trump's nonsense.

Scott Walker Makes Presidential Bid Official

July 13, 2015 - Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has announced he will see the Republican nomination for President.

Walker has been at or near the top of virtually every poll taken this cycle, and his announcement should add to his dominance.

He has triumphed in three gubernatorial elections in four years, including a recall election. His legislative and fiscal reforms have won accolades from the business community, and his willingness to challenge the most bitter extreme left-wing special interests has won him a well-earned reputation as a fighter. And a winner.

Expect Republicans to coalesce behind this proven leader.

Florida Congressional Districts to be redrawn

July 09, 2015 - Florida's Supreme Court has ruled that the state's Congressional map is unduly partisan and in violation of the state's constitution.

The ruling applies specifically to Corrinne Brown's serpentine 5th District that slithers from Jacksonville to Orlando, two districts in the Tampa Bay area (13 and 14), two districts in Broward/Palm Beach counties (21 and 22), and three districts to the south and west of Miami (25, 26 and 27).

Perpetual politician, Obama-hugger, and St. Petersburg resident Charlie Crist may take a shot at the 13th District, which, like most of the impacted districts, has now become more Democrat-friendly.

Jim Webb Announces bid for Democrat Presidential Nomination

July 02, 2015 - Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb has announced that he will make a run a thte Democrat Presidential nomination.

Webb has also served as Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan. Even former President Theodore Roosevelt was only an Assistant Secretary of the Navy.

Webb is a decent man who has no chance to win the Democrat nomination because, well, because he is a decent man.



2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES




PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT JULY 1, 2015
Democrat Status Republican
Lincoln Chaffee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders Declared Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsay Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump
Jim Webb Strong Signals John Kasich, Scott Walker
Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, Brian Schweitzer Positioning -
Elizabeth Warren Mixed Signals -
Barbara Boxer, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Mark Warner Weak Signals -
Julian Castro, Deval Patrick Irrevocable No Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan


2016 Election Archives

June 2015

May 2015

April 2015

March 2015

February 2015

Januay 2015


THE REPUBLICANS

1. SCOTT WALKER - Walker continues to maintain a strong lead in Iowa. Once he wins first-in-the-nation Iowa, the field will thin out and support will coalesce being the Wisconsin Governor.

2. JEB BUSH - Bush looks good in New Hampshire and seems to have eked out a lead over Rubio in Florida.

3. MARCO RUBIO - Look for Rubio and Bush to have an epic battle for Florida. If Rubio loses Florida to Bush things go downhill in a hurry. But all candidates will be forced to fight; if a candidate is perceived to have snubbed Florida it might not be forgotten when the General Election rolls around.

4. TED CRUZ - Cruz is the big mover this month. He has expanded his lead in delegate-rich Texas, which will have a very early primary this time around, March 1st. If Cruz crushes it in Texas, he could wake up on March 2nd with the lead and that could give him sustainable momentum.

5. RAND PAUL - Paul needs New Hampshire like Walker needs Iowa. Recent polling has Bush leading New Hampshire and if he defeats Paul, it becomes hard for Paul. The only state he leads is his home state of Kentucky.

6. BEN CARSON - Carson continues to poll well, but there is no obvious path to victory. It would be great to see him as HHS Secretary or Surgeon General.

7. MIKE HUCKABEE - Huckabee appeals to the same crowd as Scott Walker, but less so. Old car smell. After he loses Iowa to Walker, it's over.

8. RICK PERRY - He has Ted Cruz in front of him in Texas, and Scott Walker in front of him nationally. Not a desirable position to be in.

9. DONALD TRUMP - Trump has money, and an ability, unfortunately, to keep his name in the news. His announcement has given him a temporary spurt of popularity, and he's currently polling well in New Hampshire. We expect the novelty to wear off.

10. LINDSEY GRAHAM - Graham leads his home state by only a hair, and that's only important - albeit very important - because South Carolina is the third state to hold it primary. Graham doesn't even register anywhere else.

11. JOHN KASICH - Kasich failed to pass in Ohio similar reforms and improvements to what Scott Walker was able to implement in Wisconsin. That makes Kasich a failed Scott Walker wannabee, kinda like New Coke. We'll take the original Coke - Scott Walker.

12. CHRIS CHRISTIE - When hard-core Republicans see Chris Christie, they see Charlie Crist - a guy getting way too cozy with Obama.


THE DEMOCRATS

1. HILLARY CLINTON - Still struggling to see what people see in her. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, OK fine... but Hillary Clinton is a self-server. She stands for nothing but the Clintons.

2. BERNIE SANDERS - Sanders is starting to draw crowds, and out-drawing Clinton. He's inching up in the polls. There is time, and time is on his side. Before he implodes like fellow Vermonter Howard Dean. Arrrrgghggh!!!!

3. MARTIN O’MALLEY - The invisible man, O'Malley just can't seem to get much attention, even on a near-empty playing field, with a crowd of spectators yearning for someone to look at besides Hillary. He's not a bad candidate, just can't get no respect. Rodney Dangerfield.

4. ANDREW CUOMO - Clinton's house of cards has collapsed but no one has noticed. Her campaign ought to be kaput. However, inexplicably, people are still saying they will vote for her. At least at the moment they are. But the sun is setting on Andrew's hopes.

5. JOE BIDEN - The talk is that Biden is getting fired up to take a run at Hillary. He is a much better candidate than she is, and with the mini bully pulpit at his beckon he comes to the fight with some weapons.

6. ELIZABETH WARREN - The prospect of a Warren candidacy slowly fades... maybe she'll surprise us, just when we least expect it. It's just so hard to imagine her sitting on the sidelines and letting Hillary, a far inferior candidate, be the nominee.

7. JIM WEBB - Here's a guy who should split his time 60/40 between Iowa and New Hampshire. Don't even set foot in his home state of Virginia. Just a distraction. Or are you just writing a novel about running for President?

8. LINCOLN CHAFFEE - What the heck, why not, right? Former Rhode Island Governor and US Senator woke up one morning, looked in the mirror, and thought he saw a President.

9. JOE MANCHIN - Manchin would be a pretty good candidate if he has the inclination to run. If Hillary drops out, who knows? Like Webb, he is a Jacksonian Democrat without the Clinton Crap Carnival.

10. BRIAN SCHWEITZER - A candidacy that has withered on the vine.

11. MARK WARNER - You would think an accomplished guy like Warner - a very successful businessman, and a former governor - would want to move on to bigger and better things than just being one of a hundred legislators. Apparently you would be wrong.

12. TIM KAINE - With Chaffee jumping into the fray and opening at #8, we can punch Boxer off the list, thus making Kaine the new designated placeholder for non-candidacies.



The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.


SENATE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +2

A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.

Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Harry Reid, D-NV

Even:
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI

Close:
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC

Marginal:
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH

Fluke:
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)



HOUSE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +10

A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.

We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.

Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.

Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02

Even:
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01

Close:
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07


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