CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

ELECTIONS 2016

PRESIDENT

November 2015 Edition

CONGRESS

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


DONALD TRUMP??

Donald Trump has come out
of nowhere and stolen the
show. He seems to have
captured the zeitgeist, the
spirit of the times. Can it last?



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
With the inept Obama
Administration in its final
days, one would have
expected that experienced
governors with a record
of accomplishment would
dominate the Race 2 Replace
but outsiders and novices
Trump, Carson and Fiorina
are in the hunt! Seasoned
executives for sure, but
not the ones the beltway
had in mind!


Democrats


BERNIE SANDERS??

The creaky, rusty Clinton
machine grinds slowly
onward, wayward, relying
solely on muscle memory
for movement. Will
Democrats suddenly rise
from their slumber to the
realization she cannot win a
General Election?



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
Folks on the right can barely
contain their joy at the
prospect of a Clinton
candidacy. Shouldn't that
give pause to the Democrats?
Biden and Warren are both
better candidates and better
Democrats than Clinton, but
aren't even in the race. And
then there are O'Malley and
Sanders, again, both better
Democrats and better
candidates. Yet the Dems
seem intent on following
Clinton in a lemming-like
charge over the cliff.

LATEST ELECTION NEWS


Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign

May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.

Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.

The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.

Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.

Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.


NOVEMBER 2015 ELECTION NEWS



Democrats win Louisiana Gubernatorial Election

November 21, 2015 - In another sign of tough times in the oil patch, John Bel Edwards (D) defeated David Vitter (R) 56-44 to replace termed-out Governor Bobby Jindal.

Louisiana has suffered a double whammy, first from the BP/Gulf oil spill, and now from depressed oil prices. The price slide has created budgetary headaches and voters took it out on the incumbent party.

This election parallels the Canadian general election last month, where plummeting oil prices have plunged the Canadian economy into recession, which in turn caused the unfortunate defeat of its esteemed Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

If oil prices don't recover soon - and they probably won't - expect continued political instability in oil-dependent jurisdictions both domestically and globally.

Bobby Jindal Folds Tent, Withdraws From GOP Presidential Field

November 17, 2015 - Former Congressman and termed-out exiting Governor Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (R) has suspended his presidential campaign. The 44-year-old stated it was not his time.

Gov. Jindal, elected in 2007 and re-elected in 2011, is being termed out with his replacement - probably US Senator David Vitter - to be elected this Saturday.

Surprisingly, this has been a tough slog for GOP governors, with the Texas and Wisconsin governors previously dropping out. After our dreadful experience with an inexperienced first term senator taking over leadership of the free world, one would have expected that an experienced governor would be an obvious and desirable alternative.

Apparently not. Good luck, Governor, we sincerely wish you well with whatever's next - perhaps a cabinet post in the upcoming Cruz Administration.

GOP Gains Even More Ground across America

November 03, 2015 - Republicans had the majority of successes in elections held across America today.

In the main event, the state of Kentucky elected only its second Republican Governor in the past 40 years. Matt Bevin, who was crushed by Mitch McConnell in the 2014 US Senate primary, handily defeated Democrat former AG Jack Conway 53-44.

In Virginia attempts by the Democrats to flip the state senate were stopped in their tracks, with the GOP retaining its 21-19 margin.

And leftist plebiscites in Ohio (marijuana), Texas (GBLT pandering) and Mississippi (education funding) were shot down and crashed into burnt-out wrecks.

For analysis and insight check out our 2015 election coverage.

Democrat Candidate Lessig Drops Out

November 02, 2015 - Little known and little noticed Harvard Professor Lawrence Lessig has dropped out of the Democrat presidential nomination contest.

Lessig's announcement demonstrates the weakness and smallness of the Democrat field. It reminds us of the sadness that such a flawed self-serving candidate as Hillary Clinton is the runaway leader for the Democrat nomination.


2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES





PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT NOVEMBER 01, 2015
Democrat Status Republican
Hillary Clinton, Lawrence Lessig, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders Running Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsay Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump
Lincoln Chaffee, Jim Webb Exited Rick Perry, Scott Walker
Barbara Boxer, Andrew Cuomo, Al Gore, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren Non-Starters -
Joe Biden, Julian Castro, Deval Patrick Irrevocable No Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan


2016 Election Archives

October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
Januay 2015

THE REPUBLICANS

1. MARCO RUBIO - Marco Rubio takes the lead for now in a fluid GOP race. He had a great debate performance, and he is an otherwise great candidate but his nuanced, stumbling and disjointed handling of immigration may be fatal in this highly-charged environment.

2. BEN CARSON - Carson is a good man but seems not entirely comfortable talking about economics or foreign policy. That's important for Presidents, and costs him a notch this month.

3. DONALD TRUMP - We continue to move Trump up the ratings, but wonder where his ceiling is - he keeps punching through it.

4. JEB BUSH - Bush seems to be weakening, and his debate performance was weak at best. Though we cut his rating slightly he continues to hold the #4 ranking - for now. Will his slide continue? It simply does not appear that he has the zeitgeist, the spirit of the times.

5. TED CRUZ - Cruz along with Rubio had by far the two best debate performances. Ted's epic takedown of the CNBC moderators scored well with all GOP constituencies and could change the arc of his campaign. We are adjusting our expectations accordingly.

6. CARLY FIORINA - Has Fiorina peaked? The GOPS's strange infatuation with the TV show guy Donald Trump is making it difficult for good candidates to make an impact.

7. JOHN KASICH - Being governor of Ohio is important. But his own quirky, inconsistent mix of conservatism makes him look RINO.

8. RAND PAUL - ISIS is Rand Paul's biggest enemy. Every terror attack is an opportunity for Paul to look feeble, and he sucker punches himself every time.

9. MIKE HUCKABEE - Over the years he has built name recognition in Iowa. Other than that his candidacy has little going for it.

10. LINDSEY GRAHAM - A candidacy still going nowhere. A name like "Grahamnesty" isn't going anywhere this year.

11. SCOTT WALKER - Sigh...

11. RICK PERRY - Sigh...


THE DEMOCRATS

1. HILLARY CLINTON - Democrats have decided they will charge the Hill with Clinton. She may be the worst candidate in Presidential history. And this, apparently, is the candidate the Democrats are are going to settle on. Unbelievable.

2. BERNIE SANDERS - With Biden dropping out Sanders moves up a notch. Sanders is still hanging around but it is unlikely that he will knock out Clinton for the nomination.

3. MARTIN O’MALLEY - O'Malley continues to struggle. Hard core Lefty's want Sanders, the uninformed want Clinton, and there's no one left in the Democratic Party for Martin O'Malley.

4. ANDREW CUOMO - There ought to be some chance that Clinton is indicted and Cuomo jumps into the race to replace her, but Obama's hyper-partisan DOJ is not politically disinterested, and will again fail to do the right thing.

5. ELIZABETH WARREN - Maybe Elizabeth Warren really isn't going to run. And Hillary Clinton really will be the Democrat nominee... is that possible? Trump v. Clinton?

6. AL GORE - Sure would be nice if Al Gore jumped in to zonk his old masters and add some life to the Dem race. But he's too busy enriching his wallet and his ego as High Priest of the Man-Made Global Warming cult.

7. JOE BIDEN - Biden has decided not to run. This is good news for America. He is a better candidate than Clinton, and would have been a formidable opponent for the GOP.

8. JIM WEBB - The Democrat Party left Jim Webb some years ago, now Jim Webb has left the race and is even talking about leaving the party and going Third Party. On Wednesday November 09 2016 Dems may be wishing he had been their candidate.

9. LINCOLN CHAFFEE - Gone. Done before he started, but now it's official.

10. JOE MANCHIN - Never jumped in, and isn't going to. The Democrats are not his party. Like Jim Webb.

11. BRIAN SCHWEITZER - Nope.

12. WESLEY CLARK - Nada. Just throwing his name out there. After all, seriously, Hillary Clinton??



The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.


SENATE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +2

A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.

Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Harry Reid, D-NV

Even:
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI

Close:
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC

Marginal:
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH

Fluke:
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)



HOUSE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +10

A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.

We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.

Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.

Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02

Even:
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01

Close:
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07


Election Archives
    Click here to review our 2014 election coverage.
© Copyright 2015 Challenge The Premise. All rights reserved.