CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

ELECTIONS 2016

PRESIDENT

January 2016 Edition

CONGRESS

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


DONALD TRUMP??

Donald Trump has come out
of nowhere and stolen the
show. He seems to have
captured the zeitgeist, the
spirit of the times. Can it last?



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
With the inept Obama
Administration in its final
days, one would have
expected that experienced
governors with a record
of accomplishment would
dominate the Race 2 Replace
but outsiders and novices
Trump, Carson and Fiorina
are in the hunt! Seasoned
executives for sure, but
not the ones the beltway
had in mind!


Democrats


BERNIE SANDERS??

The creaky, rusty Clinton
machine grinds slowly
onward, wayward, relying
solely on muscle memory
for movement. Will
Democrats suddenly rise
from their slumber to the
realization she cannot win a
General Election?



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
Folks on the right can barely
contain their joy at the
prospect of a Clinton
candidacy. Shouldn't that
give pause to the Democrats?
Biden and Warren are both
better candidates and better
Democrats than Clinton, but
aren't even in the race. And
then there are O'Malley and
Sanders, again, both better
Democrats and better
candidates. Yet the Dems
seem intent on following
Clinton in a lemming-like
charge over the cliff.

LATEST ELECTION NEWS


Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign

May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.

Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.

The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.

Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.

Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.


JANUARY 2016 ELECTION NEWS



Exciting Race Developing in New York's 19th Congressional District

January 17, 2016 - Democrat leadership in New York's 19th Congressional District has announced its support for the candidacy of Zephyr Teachout in their bid to regain control of the district from the retiring incumbent Republican Chris Gibson.

Teachout is a far left activist best known for challenging New York's sitting Governor Andrew Cuomo from the left in the 2014 Democrat Primary, and gaining 34% of the vote. She is also an author and tenured professor at Fordham University.

Her likely Republican opponent is former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso, who resigned to run for statewide office, first in 2002 for Comptroller against corrupt Democrat Alan Hevesi who was subsequently imprisoned for pay-to-play crimes, and then in 2006 for Governor against disgraced Democrat Eliot Spitzer who subsequently resigned in a prostitution scandal.

Faso first needs to sew up the party endorsement against Delaware County farmer Bob Bishop, and then will likely face a primary challenge from Dutchess County businessman Andrew Heaney.

Teachout has no connection to the district, and to establish residency, has recently begun renting a house in the extreme southeast of the district, for her convenience, as near to New York City as possible. Teachout did particularly well upstate in her campaign against Cuomo, but is probably misreading the results - her relative success was not based on the strength of her candidacy, but was rather a protest against Cuomo's anti-gun SAFE Act.

One would have thought the Democrats had learned something after the shellacking that their helicopter candidate Sean Eldridge was issued by Gibson in 2014, but they are going to try again.

As for New Yorkers, they would have far better served their interests by electing John Faso the last two times they've had the chance. We will see if New Yorkers have learned their lesson yet.


2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES





PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT JANUARY 01, 2016
Democrat Status Republican
Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders Running Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump
Lincoln Chaffee, Lawrence Lessig, Jim Webb Exited Lindsay Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rick Perry, Scott Walker
Barbara Boxer, Wesley Clark, Andrew Cuomo, Al Gore, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Brian Schweitzer Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren Non-Starters -
Joe Biden Julian Castro, Deval Patrick Irrevocable No Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan


2016 Election Archives

December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
Januay 2015

THE REPUBLICANS

1. DONALD TRUMP - This is rapidly turning into a three-man race, with Trump capturing the populist zeal along with libertarians and outsiders who might in the past have supported "The Pauls". He has a good shot at taking New Hampshire.

2. TED CRUZ - Conservatives are coalescing around consistent Constitutionalist Cruz, a trend that will accelerate when he crushes Iowa. His biggest obstacle is that his best states, such as Texas, are early-voting proportional states. Will he have enough momentum to carry late-voting winner-take-all states like New York, New Jersey and California?

3. MARCO RUBIO - Will the Establishment embrace Rubio as a less-worse alternative to Cruz or Trump?

4. BEN CARSON - Carson slips to fourth place as conservatives are trending towards Cruz. The fad seems to be fading. If you like Carson, Cruz is your man.

5. CHRIS CHRISTIE - Tough-talking Chris Christie has risen phoenix-like from the ashes after San Bernardino. Saved by terror, like Gary Condit in 2001. He needs to put the push on Bush, and go after Rubio.

6. JEB BUSH - Bush just keeps sinking, dropping another slot this month. He is rapidly becoming an after-thought. There are just too many candidates that are interesting and not named Bush.

7. JOHN KASICH - Kasich polls poorly everywhere except in New Hampshire. His campaign lives or dies there. Probably dies.

8. CARLY FIORINA - Unfortunately it's over for Carly. She was a decent candidate, but this was not the greatest year to be contesting the GOP presidential nomination.

9. RAND PAUL - Paul's soft-on-terror / soft-on-crime message is not resonating. HIs outsiders have flocked to Trump.


THE DEMOCRATS

1. HILLARY CLINTON - Recent CNN poll has Clinton trailing both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. And yet she is the overwhelming favorite among Democrats - do these people have any idea what they're stepping in to?

2. BERNIE SANDERS - Old tired stale Socialist. This is the guy young Democrats are (a bit) excited about. Sigh.

3. MARTIN O’MALLEY - Mayor of Baltimore. Governor of Maryland. What a great resume.

4. ANDREW CUOMO - The New York State Assembly Speaker in now jail. The New York State Senate Majority Leader is now in jail. Can the Governor be far behind?

5. ELIZABETH WARREN - Republicans are glad to face the flawed, terrible candidate Clinton, and not Warren. Democrats should pause at that...

6. AL GORE - Too busy cashing in as the poo-bah of man-made global warming to pick a fight with the Clintons and their sycophants.

7. JOE BIDEN - One can only wonder, will Biden suddenly emerge as a last-minute rescuer to save the Democrats from a Clinton-lead obliteration?

8. JIM WEBB - Webb unloaded a barrage on Clinton over the holidays and threatened a third party run. Republicans keep wondering why Webb is the only Democrat who will openly state the obvious and propose alternatives.

9. LINCOLN CHAFFEE - Yes, he's out, understood, he'll come off the list next month when we trim the list to eight.



The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.


SENATE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +2

A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.

Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Harry Reid, D-NV

Even:
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI

Close:
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC

Marginal:
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH

Fluke:
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)



HOUSE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +10

A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.

We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.

Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.

Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02

Even:
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01

Close:
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07


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