CHALLENGE
THE PREMISE

ELECTIONS 2016

PRESIDENT

NEWS

CONGRESS

Who will be the
2016 candidates
for President of
the United States?


Republicans


DONALD TRUMP??

Donald Trump has come out
of nowhere and stolen the
show. He seems to have
captured the zeitgeist, the
spirit of the times. Can it last?



Who, from among this
strong, diverse field , will
emerge victorious to return
the GOP to the White
House?

COMPETITORS
With the inept Obama
Administration in its final
days, one would have
expected that experienced
governors with a record
of accomplishment would
dominate the Race 2 Replace
but outsiders and novices
Trump, Carson and Fiorina
are in the hunt! Seasoned
executives for sure, but
not the ones the beltway
had in mind!


Democrats


BERNIE SANDERS??

The creaky, rusty Clinton
machine grinds slowly
onward, wayward, relying
solely on muscle memory
for movement. Will
Democrats suddenly rise
from their slumber to the
realization she cannot win a
General Election?



Is Hillary a foregone
conclusion, or will
someone else swoop in and
steal the show?


COMPETITORS
Folks on the right can barely
contain their joy at the
prospect of a Clinton
candidacy. Shouldn't that
give pause to the Democrats?
Biden and Warren are both
better candidates and better
Democrats than Clinton, but
aren't even in the race. And
then there are O'Malley and
Sanders, again, both better
Democrats and better
candidates. Yet the Dems
seem intent on following
Clinton in a lemming-like
charge over the cliff.

LATEST ELECTION NEWS


Cruz Announces Suspension of Campaign

May 3, 2016 - Texas Senator Ted Cruz announced tonight that he will discontinue his presidential campaign after being defeated in Indiana.

Cruz had expected to do well in Indiana, and indeed needed a good night to stay alive. That was not to be as early returns show Cruz losing all nine of the state's Congressional Districts, and losing in all but a half dozen of its 92 counties.

The last win for Cruz was a month ago in Wisconsin. Lopsided defeats since then in six Northeast states created a self-fulfilling negative feedback loop of doom.

Cruz asserted that even though the campaign is suspended, the movement will continue.

Expect Cruz stay in the Senate, lying in wait for another opportunity in 2020 to reclaim rightful place as the leader of the Anti-DC movement, that he must feel was heisted by Trump.



2016 - PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES



PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS - AS AT APRIL 01, 2016
Democrat Status Republican
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders Running Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Donald Trump
Lincoln Chaffee, Lawrence Lessig, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb Exited Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsay Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker
Barbara Boxer, Wesley Clark, Andrew Cuomo, Al Gore, Tim Kaine, Joe Manchin, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren Non-Starters -
Joe Biden Julian Castro, Deval Patrick Irrevocable No Rob Portman, John Thune, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan

2016 ELECTION ARCHIVES
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016

December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015

THE REPUBLICANS

1. DONALD TRUMP - Trump stumbled badly in the early part of April, but in retrospect we can now see that Wisconsin was an outlier. Teflon Don recovered Phoenix-like and won every county (except Manhattan) in NY, PA, RI, CT, MD and DE. Trump is now approaching inevitability as the Republican nominee.

2. TED CRUZ - The Cruz campaign seemed to recover with a strong April 5 victory in Wisconsin, but was shut out in the Northeast in the second half of April. The campaign is in dire need of some big wins fast to keep the ship afloat.

3. JOHN KASICH - The John Kasich sideshow continues. Try visualizing Major Hochstetter glancing at Colonel Hogan, then screaming to Colonel Klink "WHAT IS THIS MAN DOING HERE!!!?!!?"

3. MARCO RUBIO - The Democrats need to worry about their candidate's motorcade being rerouted to the Big House. Republican fears of a contested convention pale by comparison. That being said, could Rubio be a consensus candidate in a contested convention?

5. BEN CARSON - Another possible consensus candidate in a contested convention... if there is one...


THE DEMOCRATS

1. HILLARY CLINTON - There is getting around the fact that the FBI investigation of Jaillary Clinton is substantial and dangerous, a ticking time bomb. Democrats' refusal to face up to the implications notwithstanding, we have her marked at only 50%, which are basically the odds of an indictment.

2. BERNIE SANDERS - If Jaillary's wrongdoing torpedoes her nomination - a 50/50 proposition - who steps in? That's Bernie's best pathway to the nomination, but he can expect to be aggressively challenged.

3. JOE BIDEN - If crime disqualifies Hillary and non-Democrat Socialist Sanders is unacceptable, the sitting Vice President wouldn't normally be a terribly bad alternative, would he? If his name wasn't Joe Biden?

4. ELIZABETH WARREN - Warren would be the other likely alternative besides Biden if Jaillary receives some new jewelry from the FBI. But it just doesn't seems she wants it so badly.

5. MARTIN O’MALLEY - O'Malley would be another alternative in the not implausible event of a Jaillary implosion.



The 114th Congress will see Republicans Mitch McConnell and John Boehner repair the damage done to the institution by deposed Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid.


SENATE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +2

A net gain for the Democrats is widely expected. They have only 10 seats to defend against 24 for the Republicans. Also favoring Democrats is the demographic makeup of the turnout in an "on" Presidential year such as 2016.

Republicans would do well to limit losses to low single digits and retain control of the Senate, where they presently hold a 54-46 advantage. Still, none of the Republican seats are seen as lay-ups for the Democrats yet, with the possible exception of Illinois.

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Mark Kirk, R-IL

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Harry Reid, D-NV

Even:
1. Ron Johnson, R-WI

Close:
1. Pat Toomey, R-PA
2. Michael Bennett, D-CO
3. Richard Burr, R-NC

Marginal:
1. Marco Rubio, R-FL
2. Rob Portman, R-OH
3. Kelly Ayotte, R-NH

Fluke:
1. Barbara Boxer, D-CA (Retiring, jungle primary dilution)
2. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Might retire to run for governor)



HOUSE PREVIEW

Long Term Outlook:


DEMOCRATS NET +10

A Republican tide swept the Democrats from control of the House in 2010. The wave receded a bit in 2012, then a swell pushed the GOP waterline even further into Democrat territory in 2014. We expect the wave to recede again - just a bit - in 2016.

We expect Republicans to remain in control of the House over the next few cycles, with some fluctuation in the absolute seat count. With GOP totals at a 90-year high-water mark, expect some fall back.

Of great help to the GOP is there success in finally dislodging four Democrats who had stubbornly hung on in conservative districts: UT04, NC07, WV03 and GA12. Don't expect Democrats win back any of these four in your life time.

Here's a starter list of some of 2016's most vulnerable Representatives:

Democrat Pick-ups:
1. Martha McSally, R-AZ02
2. John Katko, R-NY24
3. Frank Guida, R-NH01
4. Bruce Poliquin, R-ME02
5. Bob Dold, R-IL10
6. Rod Blum, R-Ia01

Republican Pick-ups:
1. Brad Ashford, D-NE02

Even:
1. Lee Zeldin, R-NY01
2. Carlos Curbelo, R-FL26
3. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-AZ01

Close:
1. Gwen Graham, D-FL02
2. Cresent Hardy, R-NV04
3. Collin Peterson, D-MN07


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